Gaza war threatens Jordan

Fighting in the West Bank would be much harder to contain

Unlike previous wars in Gaza, the current conflict has the potential to expand to the West Bank, where clashes involving Palestinians, Jewish settlers and Israeli security forces are on the rise.

While the Israel Defense Forces are in the process of dismantling the Hamas regime in Gaza, the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority in the West Bank has continued to break down.

Should it lose control, Israel would face unprecedented chaos in both Palestinian territories, and it would not take long for unrest in the West Bank to spill over into neighboring and chronically fragile Jordan. Such a turn of events would provide an opening for Iran to expand its influence into the Hashemite monarchy from Syria and Iraq.

West Bank on Edge

On November 14, Israeli forces killed at least eight Palestinians in the West Bank during a raid and clashes with suspected militants in the town of Tulkarem. The incident came after Hamas’ armed wing claimed responsibility for attacks in the northern West Bank city of Nablus.

As many as 170 Palestinians have died in clashes with Israelis across the West Bank since Hamas’ October 7 attack in Gaza. Meanwhile, Jewish settlers are reportedly seizing more land in the West Bank.

The situation in the West Bank has been deteriorating since well before the October 7 attack. Under the Netanyahu government, which is dominated by extreme far-right political factions, there had been an uptick in Jewish settlement construction as well as moves to annex significant parts of the West Bank.

The Palestinian Authority, which since its founding in 1994 has had limited control over the territory, has been weakening – not only because of its inability to do much about the settlers’ encroachments but also due to its own corruption, a geriatric leadership and internal factionalization. Thus far, the Palestinian Authority has managed to contain popular dissatisfaction with its governance, resentment over the Israeli occupation and the growing assertiveness of Israeli settlers.

But estimates of the number of Palestinians who have died already total 11,000. Should the rising death toll spark civil unrest in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority would struggle mightily to restore order, much less to assume control of postwar Gaza as the U.S. hopes.

Moreover, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is 88 years old, and various factions in the Fatah-dominated government body have been jockeying for position in anticipation of a leadership transition.

These divisions likely extend to the ranks of the Palestinian security services, which are responsible for the West Bank’s Area A, where the Palestinian Authority has full control, and Area B, where it runs the civil administration under Israeli security oversight. The situation is ripe for exploitation by Hamas and other militants in the West Bank.

An escalation of clashes between Palestinians and IDF troops and/or Israeli settlers could shatter discipline among the Palestinian security services and result in fighting between Palestinian security personnel and militant groups on one side and IDF troops and armed settlers on the other.

Risks for Jordan

In Gaza, the fighting is more easily contained because of the area’s small size and the fact that it can directly spread only to Sinai, where Egypt maintains a robust military presence. By contrast, the West Bank is much larger and more populous. A major Israeli military operation there could drive refugees into neighboring Jordan, where well over half the population has Palestinian origins.

It has happened before. Jordan ruled the West Bank from 1948 until Israel seized control in 1967 in the aftermath of the SixDay War. Rather than give up the fight, Palestine Liberation Organization guerrillas sought sanctuary in Jordan. Israeli forces pursued them across the border in 1968, opening a rift between Amman and the PLO. Having failed in its struggle against Israel, the PLO sought to consolidate its position in

Jordan.

By 1970, the PLO had essentially established a state-type presence within the kingdom and began to call for the overthrow of the monarchy. Fearful of losing power, the monarch at the time, King Hussein, opted to fight back. The ensuing conflict culminated in the event known as Black September, when Jordanian forces, with the help of a Pakistani military task force, defeated the PLO and expelled it to Lebanon.

This experience is seared into the psyche of the Jordanian political elite. Jordan’s leaders have long been concerned that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially in the West Bank, represents a major threat to the stability of the Hashemite monarchy.

In recent years, the collapse of the peace process, the growth of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and the many wars in Gaza have amplified Amman’s fears, despite a 1994 Israel-Jordan peace agreement. This is why Jordan’s King Abdullah II has been more vocal than usual in his criticism of Israel since the Oct. 7 attack.

Jordan’s government is also attuned to the internal pressure on it to do more to alleviate the Palestinian situation. However, as a small, weak state, its options are limited. In the absence of an Israeli-Palestinian resolution, it has long hoped the conflict would at least remain confined to the Gaza Strip. It took comfort in the fact that the

West Bank, despite its many problems, was still manageable.

The wars in Gaza over the past 15 years did not threaten to destabilize the West Bank and, by extension, Jordan. But Israel’s pursuit of regime change in Gaza credibly threatens to break the fragile order in the West Bank. The last thing the Jordanians want – and a dream scenario for Hamas and Iran – is Gaza-like conditions in the West Bank.

Jordan has long feared Iran’s growing power.

Tehran is well positioned on two of Jordan’s borders – in Iraq and Syria – to expand its influence into the West Bank. In 2004, King Abdullah II warned of the rise of a Shiite crescent stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea “that would be very destabilizing for the gulf countries and actually for the whole region.”

Nearly 20 years later, that crescent is poised to threaten Jordan itself. While the world is bracing for Hezbollah to open a second front on Israel’s northern flank, another front to the east is in the making.