A shift in Russian wartime policy?

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published a statement made by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that we regard as a significant shift in Russian foreign policy.

He said the demilitarized zone in Ukraine should be pushed back farther away from Russian territories – far enough that it would be safe from “long-range weapons of foreign production … which the Ukrainian authorities use to shell peaceful cities.”

After all, the purpose of the conflict, he said, was to protect the Russian motherland.

In other words, Putin wants to put Russian territory out of reach of Ukrainian missiles, whatever distance that might require. He said nothing of whether it would put Ukraine out of range of Russian missiles.

Apart from some cryptic messages over the past month, this is the first clear indication that Putin would be open to a negotiated end to the war.

Any discussion on the location and size of an area from which attacks would fall short of Moscow would demand as much, especially if it means pushing the line all the way back to Ukraine’s western border.

There are several ways the proposal could fail – if indeed this leads to an official proposal – but there are some reasons for cautious optimism. For one thing, Russia has failed to execute a decisive offensive.

Neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian public seems eager to continue the war. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just tried to fire his commanding general, a hardliner who wanted Zelenskyy to be more aggressive or quit. The reality is that no matter its stated goals, Kyiv wants to end the war, and to do so it will have to cede some territory. In May 2023, Ukraine proposed a 120-kilometer (75-mile) demilitarized zone. It’s possible this is the beginning of Russia’s answer.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s foreign minister is visiting Ukraine. The government in Budapest has been close to Russia, and though it is a member of Russia’s enemy, NATO, it is no friend to Ukraine.

This makes for a confusing negotiating platform, but clarity is not helpful at this moment. Hungarian mediation was suggested at the beginning of the war, and the visit by the foreign minister around the time Putin’s statement was published suggests a quiet consultation might have taken place. It seems as though Putin has submitted his terms for at least a cessation of combat. And though we don’t know the maximum range of every missile Ukraine has or will possess in the future, eventual cessation appears to be the logical outcome.