Solid economic growth ahead: Focus Economics forecasts

IMF may make $2bn financial grant available to Egypt, praised government for its recent reform efforts

In the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal year (FY) 2019, which runs from July 2018 to June 2019, the annual economic growth rate eased slightly from the previous quarter’s multi-year high, according to Focus Economics, a leading provider of economic forecasts from the world’s leading economies.

The largest contributions to growth in Q1 came from natural the gas; wholesale and retail; agriculture, and the telecommunications sectors, in descending order. On the other hand, higher inflation, a small rise in the unemployment rate, and slower industrial production growth likely weighed on growth.

Meanwhile, Q2 got off onto a rocky start in October, with business activity in the non-oil private sector contracting for the second consecutive month, and at a faster pace than in September.

More encouragingly, the IMF is close to making a further $2bn financial grant available to Egypt, and it praised the government for its recent reform efforts on the 31st October.

According to its forecast for the Egyptian economy, Focus Economics stated that current FY should observe solid economic growth, thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production,and an improving regulatory environment. However, large fiscal imbalances will depress economic prospects, foretelling that the GDP will increase by 5.2% in FY 2019, which is consistent with from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in FY 2020.