Stock rally pauses as US inflation douses rate cut hopes
London/Tokyo — Global stocks were set to end the week on a tepid note, following seven weeks of gains, and the dollar stood firm, after hotter-thanforecast U.S. inflation knocked back bets for how soon and often the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
MSCI’S global equity index was down 0.1 per cent on Friday and flat for the week, following a strong rally for most of the first quarter of the year. The dollar index , which measures the currency against the euro, yen and four other major peers, was steady at 103.38 following a rally on Thursday, heading for its best week since January.
The mood was cautions after a biggerthan-expected rise in producer prices in U.S. data on Thursday added to a hot consumer inflation reading earlier in the week.
Traders have cut the odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the world’s most influential central bank, cutting rates in June to 60 per cent, from about 67 per cent late on Wednesday, according to LSEG’s rate probability app.
Ahead of the Fed’s rate setting meeting next week, the market is now pricing in fewer than three U.S. rate cuts for 2024, down from three to four roughly two weeks ago and around seven late last year. U.S. borrowing costs are currently in a range of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent, more than a two-decade high.
U.S. stock futures pointed marginally higher on Friday, however, following a 0.29 per cent decline in the S&P 500 on Thursday that masked a big drop in chip sector shares .
“The market is resigned to seeing no rate cuts in the first half of the year,” said Eren Osman, wealth management director at Arbuthnot Latham.
“Investors are buying into the no-landing scenario,” he added, referring to an outlook where the global economy avoids a recession and central banks do not rush to loosen monetary policy unless inflation drops below target levels.
Elsewhere, Japan was in the global market spotlight, as speculation builds that the Bank of Japan could exit its ultra-dovish monetary policies at its two-day meeting ending next Tuesday.
Jiji news agency reported on Thursday that the BOJ had started to make arrangements to end its negative interest rate policy at the gathering.
Sources told Reuters that the central bank would debate the end of negative rates while the government also appeared to back a policy shift. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that the economy was no longer in deflation.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose to 0.795 per cent for the first time in more than three months earlier in Friday’s session.
Any yen strength, however, was overpowered by the resurgent dollar, which gained 0.2 per cent to 148.8 yen , continuing its rebound from a low of 146.48 a week ago.
The euro extended Thursday’s decline to $1.087, after hitting a two-month high of $1.0980 a week ago.
Elsewhere, oil prices succumbed to some profit taking, following strong gains this week amid sharp declines in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries and an increase in energy demand forecasts.
Brent crude futures for May were down 0.6 per cent, to $85.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April was down 0.7 per cent, to $80.73.
Bitcoin edged away from an all-time high reached on Thursday, as risk sentiment took a hit.