Headline inflation ticks up to 4.5%

MBABANE – After having been on the downward trend for two consecutive months, the country’s headline inflation ticked up to 4.5 per cent in January.

According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, issued by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) yesterday, this inflation rate has shown an increase of 0.14 percentage points from the 4.3 per cent, that was observed in December 2023.

The 4.5 per cent observed in January 2024 was lower than the inflation rate of 5.3 per cent, which was observed in January 2023.

The CSO reported that for January, the housing and utilities (2.0 per cent) and the food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.3 per cent) categories, respectively contributed significantly to the headline inflation rate of 4.5 per cent.

Month-on-month highlights (January 2024 compared with December 2023), indicated that restaurants and which increased from 0.0 per cent in December 2023, to 4.0 per cent in January 2024, where increasing rates were observed in other services and financial services.

Yearly analysis indicated that food and non-alcoholic beverages, decreased from 15.5 per cent in January 2023 to 5.6 per cent in January 2024.

This was due to oils and fats (which recorded a negative growth); fish and seafood; and bread and cereals, which both recorded slower growths.

Transport decreased from 4.7 per cent in January 2023 to 1.3 per cent in January 2024. This lower rate was due to negative growth rates observed in airfares; and slower growth rates observed in fuels and lubricants.

Health decreased from 21.9 per cent in January 2023 to 2.5 per cent in

January 2024. This was due to lower price increases observed in medical services.

Globally, according to the Economic Experts Survey, German think-tank, Ifo Institute, economists projected a global average inflation rate for 2024 at 5 per cent, lower than the previous expectation of 6 per cent.

Expected inflation rates for 2025 and 2027, follow a downward trend compared to the previous quarter, but remain high at 4.4 and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

“Inflation expectations vary widely among the world’s regions,” as most regions show a decline in short-term and long-term inflation expectations compared to the previous quarter.

Global economic growth will remain ‘resilient’ this year after a stronger-than-expected 2023, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday, but work is needed to boost global growth rates above an anemic three per cent range in the medium term.