Whowillwin?

direct confrontation along the same lines as World War Two (1939-45) but of course that, in turn, was not comparable with World War One (1914-18). It’s Russia against the ‘western world’, which is almost everyone not in Russia, China or North Korea, or the hypocritical (non-mentionable) countries that are not-so-quietly ‘sleeping with the enemy’. Russia is entirely to blame. It invaded Ukraine in January 2022 and merely to feed the atavistic compulsion to revive the Soviet Empire that collapsed in 1991. That had caused people like Vladimir Putin to cry in their boots for the next 31 years until they started the war, with an entirely fallacious justification that the Ukrainians were a bunch of Nazis.

Hoped

We all hoped the Ukrainian gains of late 2022 and the failed internal coup in Russia would lead to a Ukraine victory. The Russians themselves had expected the war to be over in a matter of weeks. Neither side got it right. A long, long war is now looking very likely. For the Ukrainians, that outcome is far more seriously damaging than for the invaders. They can’t call on the same numbers and they care more about loss of life than Putin and his elite group. It has been learnt that Russia has a 5 to 1 advantage in fire power and all that in the face of a support from the West that is struggling.

Increasingly, the self-centredness emerging within so many of the countries involved will increase the pressure on the top politicians to cut back on military aid. Ironically, it is quite the opposite – an increase in assistance and a more substantial move from proxy support through equipment to active physical support – that would have been the way to finish the war quickly back in 2022. But we all know that such a course of action would have created the very real risk of a desperate reach for the nuclear war button by Mr Putin, knowing that his own downfall would happen anyway.

The solution is, therefore, increased defence spending by the West and a continued and visibly consistent support for Ukraine. The alternative would be disaster for Ukraine. The people would then play host to those who killed their sons and daughters, partners, parents and grandparents. Imagine what that would feel like. So the Ukrainians will not give in without continuing their valiant struggle. But neither will the Russians. They’ve put up with some of the worst stuff in history, especially the Stalin era when six million Russians were directly killed.

Resilience

They have resilience within their very souls. And the average Russian, who we used to love, is now the hapless consumer of false propaganda. And they fear ruthless retribution if they step out of line. Putin and his elite will never give up. That would be more dangerous than continuing the fight.

Given the undeniable reality that Russia is far more committed to this war than is the West, it must not be a long one, and must be won by Ukraine. Otherwise, who’s to stop the Russians attacking other former Soviet States? The borders of sovereign States must be respected and the Western world, especially NATO, must support this.

But this approach is not shared by all the policymakers in the West and the slower we move on it, the more likely it is that Russia will eventually win; unless their people can see the truth and do something about it.

And as we reflect on our own personal neglect of thought for the day-to-day activities in that war, did we also have a week without thinking about Alexei Navalny? He was a brave Russian who dared to charge the establishment, providing many examples of corruption in the Russian leadership. He died in prison in Russia on February 16, 2024. It’s more than a coincidence that, in August 2020, he endured, but survived, an assassination attempt by lethal nerve agent poisoning. Our beautiful world has some very serious imperfections.