Why Police and government concern shouldn’t be dismissed as hyperbole
When Federal Police and the Australian Government say the Sydney bomb plot gives them reason for concern, it shouldn’t be dismissed as the usual Canberra hyperbole.
If there is one thing that is guaranteed to make Western governments sit up and take notice, it’s well-made bombs destined for commercial airliners.
Ever since the catastrophic attacks of September 11, 2001, Western governments have been particularly concerned about terrorists targeting the aviation sector.
That is not just because of the potential for mass casualties — a typical international flight carries hundreds of people — but also because of the huge impact such attacks can have on the global economy.
Which is why we should pay attention when AFP Deputy Commissioner Michael Phelan says, as he did this morning, that the explosive bomb destined for the Etihad flight on July 15 was technically sophisticated. “We have been saying for a long time that it is not only low capability lone actors we have to worry about, we have to worry about sophisticated plots,” he said.
Does this plot signify a change in tactics for Islamic State?
If it also signifies a change in tactics for the Islamic State — from the uncomplicated and bloody attacks we’ve seen recently to complex, mass casualty attacks against hardened targets — it is even more cause for concern.
All the indicators suggest that is exactly what they’re doing. The laptop ban on planes enacted by the US and the UK in March and the May Manchester bombing are both worrying signs.
While Australian authorities haven’t confirmed the type of explosive police allege Khaled Khayat and his conspirators tried to smuggle on board the Etihad flight, it is likely it was the same explosive repeatedly used by Al Qaeda in a series of bomb plots targeting the US —PETN (pentaerythritol tetranitrate).
PETN is valued by terrorists because it is hard to detect and has a relatively high yield for its size: about 100 grams can reportedly destroy a car.
It’s also the explosive of choice for Al Qaeda’s most prolific and effective bombmaker, Saudi Arabian citizen Ibrahim al-Asiri. Al-Asiri is a member of Al Qaeda’s Yemenbased cell, known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and remains one of the most dangerous men in the world.
He is responsible for creating the bombs used in most of Al Qaeda’s post-9/11 plots against the US, including ‘shoe bomber’ Richard Reid in 2001, ‘underpants bomber’ Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in 2009, and a plot involving two bombs smuggled on separate cargo planes bound for the US in 2010.
Al-Asiri remains free despite a decade-long manhunt.
Australian police will allege the IED in the Australian airport plot had been built under instructions from a senior Islamic State (IS) controller in Syria and was to be planted in the luggage of a brother of one of the accused on the Etihad flight out of Sydney on July 15. Police said the brother was not aware of the plan.
The alleged details show an eerie similarity to al-Asiri, who in August 2009 convinced his brother Abdullah to carry a bomb to a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s security chief. The bomb exploded, though only Abdullah was killed.
Given the fact the Australian bomb — reportedly smuggled in parts from Turkey — was well made and the alleged conspirators targeted commercial flights, it is likely parallels are already being drawn by Western intelligence between this plot and the actions of AQAP and al-Asiri.
So as this latest alleged terrorist plot wends its way through Australia’s courts, you can be sure intelligence agencies around the world will be paying close attention.