How We Will Know If North Korea Really ‘Denuclearises’
North Korea has said it will start dismantling its nuclear test site this week, in a ceremony to be attended by foreign journalists. But what would it take for the country to truly “denuclearise”?
In the mountainous north-east of North Korea lies Pyongyang’s nuclear test facility - the Punggye-ri complex.
It has been used for six nuclear tests since 2006, but North Korea says “technical measures” to dismantle it will be carried out between 23 and 25 May.
North Korea has said it is committed to denuclearisation, but has threatened to pull out of forthcoming talks with US President Donald Trump, in a disagreement over how that might happen.
At first glance, Kim Jong-un’s pledge to close the test site appears to be a welcome first step towards ending its nuclear programme but how far does it actually go?
Proper assessment
The Punggye-ri nuclear facility is the dedicated test site for North Korea’s nuclear weapons, with a system of tunnels dug below nearby Mount Mantap. It has been suggested the site has partially collapsed already. Pyongyang says inviting foreign observers - South Korean and international journalists - to see the tunnels being collapsed and observation facilities removed will show its work in a “transparent manner”.
But it is not clear that experts have been invited as well - a measure that is necessary for the process to be properly assessed. Inviting the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) would allow confirmation that the test site is no longer capable of conducting nuclear tests.
The organisation, a UN-backed monitoring group that aims to ban nuclear tests worldwide, maintains a network of sensors to ensure that none is being conducted.
Its experts would be able to give a technical judgement about the completeness of the test site destruction.
Analysts will be looking for the collapse of the available test tunnels at Punggye-ri and removal of monitoring facilities.
After the ceremony, satellite imagery will be used by governments and independent experts to monitor for activity, new buildings and equipment, which might indicate that North Korea plans to resume testing.
Satellite imagery may not help if North Korea clandestinely opens a new nuclear test site. It has many other mountains that could be used. But if that were the case, it would be unable to hide any new underground tests, as the resulting seismic tremors would be detected.