Coronavirus to have limited impact on Pacific tourism

The coronavirus outbreak has caused enormous disruption to people’s lives and impeded international travel.

This was the recent findings of ANZ International Economists, Kishti Sen and Tom Kenny in the latest ANZ Pacific Insight report released yesterday.

“While it is expected to impact economic activity of many countries, we think the Pacific island economies will be relatively insulated,” the economists said. “Numbers of Chinese tourists to the Pacific are growing but still small, accounting for less than 5 per cent of all visitors in 2019.

“Fiji received the most (47k), followed by Vanuatu (about 4k) and Samoa (around 2k).

“If the outbreak is contained soon, we think around 15k Chinese visitors will be unable to make it to the Pacific in the short term.

“This may be offset by higher arrivals from Australia, New Zealand and the United States.”

Economic conditions

Economic conditions in these countries, the economists say, in particular income growth, are still broadly supportive of international travel.

“The unemployment rate in Australian (the Pacific’s largest market) is near all-time lows. While this is not yet translating into a material move higher in wages, continued jobs growth and lower interest rates and taxes are supportive of household disposable income growth.

“While Australian households are cautious, at present, they are still going on holidays, and may divert travel plans from Asia to alternative markets over the near-term because of the coronavirus. “Long-term migration of Pacific Islanders to Australia and New Zealand has risen in recent years, increasing the number of trips from those countries to visit family and friends in the Pacific.

“We believe Australia’s bushfires may also lead to some Australians choosing to travel to the Pacific rather than their usual domestic venues.

“Industry liaison suggests most prepaid package holidays are booked in January.

“Bushfires were in the headlines for most of that month.”

The Pacific has a well-established brand as a family friendly and safe holiday destination, so we expect it to pick up some of the up-tick in Australians holidaying overseas.

“Governments across the Pacific have implemented measures (travel bans) to halt the local spread of the coronavirus.

No cases of Coronavirus in Fiji

“At present, there are no cases in Fiji, and the Ministry of Health and Medical Services has rolled out enhanced health screenings and treatment guidelines to detect and manage ill passengers travelling to Fiji, in an effort to contain any confirmed cases.

“With the diligent monitoring and preparedness all governments are practicing, we believe the number of inbound visitors to the Pacific is likely to hold up, this year, especially as the outbreak has occurred during the Pacific’s off-peak tourism season.

“This means foreign reserves, GDP, employment and government revenue in tourism-dependent economies, such as Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa and Cook Islands, are likely to remain intact.”