Is a War Brewing on
Historically, the weather has had a surprising influence on the actions of armies, and the victor of battles. Harsh winters can decimate unprepared armies, and storms can start or end wars
Though India and China remain engaged in talks over the border standoff, there is speculation in Ladakh that Pakistan and China are preparing for a two-front war against India during the coming winter.
Can ‘General Frost’ play a role?
The first time the name ‘General Frost’ appeared was in 1812 in a British satirical cartoon dedicated to Napoleon’s catastrophic Russian campaign. The cheering British wrote: ‘General Frost shaving little Boney.’ The severe frost took a dreadful toll on the ill-prepared Grande Armée on its way out of Russia. Only a few tens of thousands of soldiers out of 600,000 returned home, and winter played a not inconsiderable role in this.
‘General Frost” played a crucial role again during World War-II. Adolf Hitler launched ‘Operation Barbarossa’ and attacked Soviet Russia with three and a half million German troops, 3400 tanks and 2700 aircraft. It was the largest invasion force to date. Adolf Hitler was confident of swift victory, asserting to his generals, “We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten thing will come down.” At first it seemed that, yet again, Hitler’s prediction would come true. As such, the Nazi soldiers went into battle wearing only summer-weight uniforms. As winter approached, conditions for the lightly clad German troops at the front became appalling. Weapons malfunctioned. Vehicles wouldn’t start. Frostbite cases soared. Troops froze to death. Despite reaching close to Moscow, Germans had to retreat with heavy losses.
Is China waiting for ‘General Frost’ in Ladakh?
Like Russia, the Ladakh region in India has similar weather conditions where the temperature plunges to (minus) -50 degrees; oxygen is rare and mighty rivers freeze during winters.
Men breathe air so spare of oxygen that it sends their hearts into a mad gallop. Fainting spells and pounding headaches are frequent. Frostbite chews its way through digits and limbs. Rifles must be thawed repeatedly over kerosene stoves, and machine guns need to be primed with boiling water. At altitudes of 16,000 feet, mortar shells fly unpredictable and extraordinary distances and swerve erratically.
As per a section of defence experts, PLA is waiting for the onset of winters which they can use to their advantage and can pose challenges before the Indian army can secure advantageous positions on the ridges. China can plan an offensive through the comparatively less challenging Tibet plateau by using its arguably superior technology, light tanks, vehicle-mounted PCL181 howitzer and mechanised infantry.
PLAAF operates twice the number of aircraft compared to the Indian Air Force (IAF) and can launch major offensives from its air bases in Ngari, Hotan, and Kashgar in Xinxiang and Tibet. Su-30MKK, Su-35 and J-20 are the aircraft which can play a major role in conventional warfare.
PLA is well aware of the fact that, their supply line will remain unentrapped over the rolling plateau region of Tibet, whereas Indians have to depend on stocks of supplies stored during summers. Road links to the war zone with mainland India will remain cut off during the winter because of heavy snowfall over high passes in the Himalayas.
Challenges for China
PLAAF suffers from a ‘terrain disadvantage’ of high-altitude and rarefied air at its airbases facing India, which severely limits the weapon and fuel carrying capacity of its fighters.
Recent global developments are also posing strategic challenges to