Leadership could very well decide outcome of 2022 General Election
The results of the latest Fiji Sun- Western Force Research poll have sent SODELPA’s brains trust reviewing party strategies. Officials, excited that the party has overtaken FijiFirst 41%-37% in the latest poll, know that it is just an indicator and the trend could change.
But the poll has tested the mood of the people and the outcome is a party vote, not necessarily based on the leadership. Members know that a new party leader will be chosen in November and it could very well be incumbent Sitiveni Rabuka returning for a second term. Or will it be one of the three challengers, MP Viliame Gavoka, former general secretary Pio Tabaiwalu and deputy Opposition Whip Aseri Radrodro?
That prospect of no change in the status quo worries many members particularly those in the moderates camp.
Mr Rabuka was tested and tried in the 2018 General Election, but fell short when the top prize was there for the taking.
The worry among the moderates is that there could be a repeat of this in 2022.
But Mr Rabuka’s supporters from the conservative right wing argue that he is the only experienced and strong leader who could face off with Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama. He won six additional seats in 2018 and nearly caused a major upset.
His backers attribute the current party position to his leadership.
But it is generally accepted that SODELPA is benefitting from the political fallout that FijiFirst is suffering from because of the adverse economic impact of COVID-19. It’s a phenomenon that is affecting many governments around the world. The bottom line is that the global pandemic is doing SODELPA a big favour.
Mr Gavoka, Mr Tabaiwalu and Mr Radrodro are all capable leaders who can lead SODELPA in 2022. They will bring a fresh change that could make the crucial difference in the election, their supporters say.
They say despite all that Mr Rabuka has done to erase the memories of his 1987 coups and the subsequent political turmoil and economic crisis still haunt some people. It’s this baggage that the party cannot afford to carry into 2022.
Like 2018 the next election could go down to the wire. And leadership will ultimately decide the final outcome,