When Will Australia Re-Open its Borders?
Australia is unlikely to reopen its international borders until the latter part of 2021.
The government budget papers have revealed international tourism — both inbound and outbound — is expected to remain low until the latter part of 2021.
The government assumes borders are likely to re-open when a population-wide Australian COVID-19 vaccination programme will be in place by late 2021.
“A gradual return of international students and permanent migrants is assumed through the latter part of 2021 (with small, phased pilot programmes beginning to return international students from late 2020),” the budget papers say.
“Inbound and outbound international travel is expected to remain low through the latter part of 2021, after which a gradual recovery in international tourism is also assumed to occur.
“Net overseas migration (NOM) is significantly affected by international travel restrictions and weaker labour markets domestically and globally. It is assumed to fall from around 154,000 persons in 2019-20 to be around -72,000 persons by the end of 2020-21, before gradually increasing to around 201,000 persons in 2023-24.”
Net overseas migration takes into account how many people enter Australia and stay for more than 12 months, compared to how many people leave the country for the same period.
Government’s plan in the best case scenario and worst-case scenario
Better health outcomes in some of Australia’s major trading partners and the successful implementation of international student pilots could allow an earlier return of international students in 2021.
Alternatively, persistent transmissions of the virus globally could delay the opening of international borders and the return of international tourism and students.
With uncertainty looming large,
the Treasury has drawn out a bestcase and a worst scenario of border closures.
The upside scenario assumes an earlier return of international students in larger numbers from 1 July 2021, with COVID-19 under control and vaccine rolled out at the same time.
Under the downside scenario, it is assumed that rolling outbreaks will necessitate reimposition of severe containment measures, thus delaying the return of international tourists and students. Based on these assumptions (borders will remain closed to international visitors for the time
being), Tourism Australia has been allocated AU$231.6 million (FJ$ 350.37m) for 2020-21 to ramp up domestic marketing activities to encourage Australians to travel again.
Trade, Tourism and Investment Minister, Simon Birmingham, said, “As we shift to the next phase of our tourism recovery plan, new Budget measures will further support the sector and jobs by stimulating domestic visitation to our tourism regions and encouraging domestic business travel.”
SBS News