Bainimarama, Rabuka Neck and Neck in Latest Fiji Sun-Western Force Poll
Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama and Sitiveni Rabuka are neck and neck in the latest Fiji Sun-Western Force Research poll.
They are separated by a slim margin in the lead as preferred next Prime Minister.
Mr Rabuka, the leader of The People’s Alliance,clings on to a slender 0.5 percent lead. He has dropped from 35.9 per cent in the previous poll to 27.9 per cent.
Mr Bainimarama polled 27.2 per cent, down from 32.2 per cent in the previous poll.
The big winner in this poll is SODELPA and its party leader Viliame Gavoka. They have jumped from 15.3 per cent in the previous poll to 22.7 per cent in this poll.
National Federation Party leader Biman Prasad has bounced back from 7.6 per cent in the previous poll to 10 per cent.
Unity Fiji leader Savenaca Narube recorded the second biggest gain after Mr Gavoka jumping from 4.7 per cent to 9.8 per cent.
Fiji Labour Party leader Mahendra Chaudhry continues to languish at the bottom, dropping further from 2.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
The changes are significant and underscore the fluid and volatile situation in the domestic political scene.
Anything can happen between now and the General Election next year. It is too early and premature to call it.
The monthly poll, conducted with a set format and demographics, provides a trend and useful indicators on how the leaders and their parties are performing monthly.
Based on the latest results, the poll indicates Mr Bainimarama and FijiFirst are clawing their way back although they have lost a bit of ground but not as big as Mr Rabuka’s loss.
The previous poll caught Mr Rabuka and his party in celebratory honeymoon phase after their registration as the eighth political party lining up for the election.
He had built up to that moment and many in the undecided voters group joined the bandwagon as reflected in the previous poll.
But that honeymoon is over, hit by a double assault on the party’s credibility by FijiFirst and SODELPA.
SODELPA DILEMMA
With the reopening of borders FijiFirst politicians are going out to the electorate to counter the misinformation spread by certain elements in Mr Rabuka’s camp.
The action of Rabuka loyalists in SODELPA to destabilise the party appears to be backfiring and doing Mr Rabuka no favours at all. They have contributed to Mr Rabuka slipping in the latest poll.
Many of SODELPA’s supporters that Mr Rabuka wants to woo were previously members of the Soqosoqo ni Duavata ni Lewenivanua (SDL) that the late Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase started in opposition to Mr Rabuka’s Soqosoqo ni Vakavulewa ni iTaukei (SVT) which collapsed and died after its humiliating defeat in the 1999 election. If Mr Rabuka fails to tread carefully people may link his new political movement to SVT.
This may have already started and explains Mr Gavoka’s latest rise as party supporters want to preserve the SODELPA and SDL brand.
It also strengthens his battle to protect his position as party leader against attempts by the conservative right wing to remove him saying he is unfit to lead SODELPA into the election.
But SODELPA members are beginning to question the real motive of this attempt when the right wingers are not going to stay around but will join Mr Rabuka’s party.
The rebels’ argument that their MPs have to serve out their term in Parliament is not resonating well when they are undermining SODELPA. They can resign from SODELPA now but if they do they will not receive the rest of their $50,000 a year salary.
That’s the real bottom line for many of them.
Secondly, when they leave they hope to have weakened SODELPA to the point that the People’s Alliance will have an unhindered run in the next election.
THE BACKLASH
Mr Rabuka is beginning to feel the backlash in this poll as the novelty of his new party wears off and the reality on the ground sinks in.
His and Mr Bainimarama’s losses in the latest poll benefit Mr Gavoka and Mr Prasad.
Mr Prasad breathes again but the question now is how long can he maintain his two digit ranking?
Mr Narube is close on Mr Prasad’s heels as he edges closer to double digits. It would be a milestone if he does because it would be the first time.
Mr Chaudhry is limping from poll to poll and it appears he is struggling and fighting for a lost cause.
Overrall the poll results show that voting is badly fragmented.
If these were the election results there would be no clear winner. It is food for thought because it keeps the coalition idea a realistic prospect.
But then again the situation may change dramatically come next year. Those keyboard warriors now writing off FijiFirst could be embarrased. Again.