Big gamble for parties to settle for coalition because of inherent risks
Forming a coalition is not a simple exercise. This is particularly true if the objective is to make up the numbers to be able to form a new Government because of the inherent high risks of complication.
If there is one big wish the two leaders in the election race have, it is to win with an outright majority and avoid a coalition.
There is already talk of Sitiveni Rabuka’s The Peoples Alliance planning a coalition with the National Federation Party or even with the Fiji Labour Party.
In fact, if you have been following Mr Rabuka’s public utterances, he has made it clear that he is open to other parties joining him.
Without any details of how it will play out, it is reasonable to assume that what he means is any process that will unseat the FijiFirst Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama.
Mr Bainimarama has not indicated whether he is open to any coalition arrangement. But it is bound to cross his mind as the election draws near if the current public opinion poll outcome by Western Force Research persists.
The poll has consistently indicated that there would not be any clear outright winner if the election was held today.
Who knows who could come ahead in next poll
The situation could change in the coming months like it did in the run-up to the 2018 election. Then, FijiFirst was well in front at the start. But SODELPA gradually caught up and closed the gap. In the end very little separated them.
This time Mr Bainimarama has closed in on Mr Rabuka with only 0.5 per cent now separating them.
Who knows he could surge ahead of Mr Rabuka in the next poll.
The close contest pitching them in the thirties on percentage points means the balance of power is held by the remaining 25 to 35 which represents SODELPA, NFP, Labour and Unity Fiji.
Any of these parties is a potential coalition partner.
For Mr Rabuka he has opened his door to all four. SODELPA and Unity Fiji are unlikely to join The People’s Alliance in a coalition.
Unless Opposition Whip Lynda Tabuya and Co take over SODELPA’s leadership reins, the current leadership will not go near Mr Rabuka.
Unity Fiji leader Savennaca Narube has previously said he will not work with Mr Rabuka because of his coup involvement.
Could he change his position if he is pressured internally?
NFP and Mr Prasad plus Mr Rabuka could take the big gamble and form a coalition, a big risk in light of the 1999 election disaster.
In that debacle, the NFP under Jai Ram Reddy was decimated in the polls. It has never fully recovered it.
Today with only three Members of Parliament, it is a shadow of its former glory.
But Mr Rabuka has reinvented himself in the form of a new party, to replace the Soqosoqo ni Vakavulewa ni Taukei Government, a party which he established after his 1987 military coups, but suffered a natural death following its ignominious defeat in 1999.
Then, in 1999, some commentators said both parties suffered from a backlash. The Indo-Fijians, the NFP’s powerbase, voted with their feet. They had not forgiven Mr Rabuka for his anti-Indo-Fijian rhetorics in 1987 and did not trust him.
Has that opinion changed? That’s the question now,
As far as the SVT was concerned, the iTaukei grassroot supporters did not like Mr Rabuka joining hands with an Indo-Fijian dominated party.
Those supporters later joined Laisenia Qarase’s Soqosoqo ni Duavata ni Lewenivanua (SDL) which later became SODELPA.
Rabuka on moving forward
Mr Rabuka is doing well in the public opinion polls now with his majority of iTaukei support.
Is he going to lose this momentum if he joins Mr Prasad’s NFP in a coalition?
Will his supporters protest?
In 1999 people were not ready for the mix – it was said then they were not ready to make the change and Mr Rabuka and Mr Reddy were speaking well ahead of their time.
Has public opinion changed and have they forgiven Mr Rabuka?
The Fiji Sun Western Force Research poll will tell us in the coming months.