Extreme weather fuels government oppression in island nations: study
The increased frequency of natural disasters could lead to further rise in autocracies, according to new research
Island countries are more vulnerable to government oppression after natural disasters – according to new research – and there are concerns that the increased frequency of weatherrelated events due to the climate crisis, could see the further rise of autocracies around the world.
The research, published this month in the Journal of Development Economics, examined data from 47 small island countries, including in the Pacific, southeast Asia and the Caribbean, from 1950-2020 to estimate the relationship between extreme weather events, such as cyclones and severe storms, and the level of democracy in a country.
Researchers used the Polity2 measure – an internationally recognised measurement that ranks countries on a scale from absolute non-democracy to mature democracy – to examine the impact of a severe weather events on democratic freedoms.
They found that on average, the
Polity2 measure dropped about 25% in the seven years after a storm shock, with an initial 4.25% fall in the year after a storm shock, with civil liberties, political liberties and freedom of association and expression all affected.
Mehmet Ulubasoglu, a professor of economics at Deakin University Australia, and one of the co-authors of the paper, said that in the wake of a natural disaster there can often be “sort of a mutu
ally agreed oppression” between a government and population.
“The government steps in to provide relief assistance, but they also see this as a window of opportunity to oppress citizens … The government buys a social licence to oppress because it’s providing disaster assistance, political liberties are restricted, civil liberties are restricted, that’s the chain of events,” he said.