Climate change drives up the price of coffee, chocolate
Climate change might drive up the price of coffee and chocolate, but it won’t take them away entirely, New Zealand experts say.
That’s despite estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that worldwide yields of coffee and cocoa beans could decrease by a third by 2050.
Coffee Supreme chief executive Andrew Low said there was plenty of motivation to keep the trades viable.
“Many families and many societies across the whole of Asia, Africa and Central America are dependent on the sustainability of coffee, so we’ve got some aligned motivations.
“I have a lot of faith in technology and farming advancements to ensure this is a sustainable crop for a long time into the future.”
Still, there are challenges. As temperatures and rainfall increase, the amount of land suitable for growing coffee beans is decreasing.
Mr Low was in Brazil last week and he said the impact there was huge, with average temperatures rising by three degrees since 1990.
“In 1990, Brazil had 97,000 kilometres of coffee-growing land,” he said.
“Today, it’s only 38,000.”
Brazil supplies a large portion of the world’s coffee beans, which are found in most blends. It’s rare for a coffee blend to be sourced from just one location - meaning we’re reliant on coffee producing countries around the world, Low explained.
“When you’re buying a bag of coffee, you’re choosing your favourite recipe. It’s a bit like baking a cake - often beans from four or five different countries will combine to create that perfect consistent coffee that you enjoy every day.”
And with the impacts of climate change spreading around the world, New Zealanders won’t be exempt from its consequences.
“Farm technologies have improved, so the amount of coffee we can get from a tree has increased and we’ve offset some of the land reduction. But we can’t do that forever. Unless we make significant changes to how we farm, we’re going to see great coffee getting a lot more expensive.”
Cocoa beans also under pressure
It’s not just coffee feeling the heat. Climate forecasters say almost a third of global cocoa production could be wiped out by 2050.
That’s because the trees like a certain environment with uniform temperatures, high humidity and plenty of rain.
But two thirds of the world’s cocoa is grown in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, where days are getting hotter and drought more frequent. Wellington Chocolate Factory cofounder Gabe Davidson said the commodity price was higher than he’d ever seen.
“It’s at a 46-year high. Over the past five years it has increased by 150 per cent. I attribute that to a global increase in demand compounded with the challenges of climate change.”
But his small, speciality company, which buys direct from farmers at a higher-thanmarket price, is more insulated than “big chocolate”, he said.
“At this end of the market we can absorb some of the price increases. We’re not planning to sell our chocolate for the same price while reducing the weight of the bar, like some chocolate companies are.”