The Fiji Times

Expert predicts next US President

- ■ NEWS.COM.AU

THE “Keys to the White House” are being handed out, predicting US President Joe Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetic­al 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, an election prognostic­ator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidenti­al race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make prediction­s about an upcoming presidenti­al election – and in many cases, it proves to be accurate, Fox News reports.

Mr Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot.

Each question is asked about the two duelling nominees; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the “keys,” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatc­h.

That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

According to American University, where Mr Lichtman teaches the “keys” are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

Mr Biden’s incumbency grants him one automatic point, that of key number 3. While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. met the requiremen­ts to appear on the Utah presidenti­al election ballot, Mr Biden was granted another “key” for not appearing to have any significan­t third party or independen­t primary challenge.

The Democrat was also given “keys” for having “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” as well as implementi­ng policy changes during his presidency. Trump, however, secured key number one, which is granted to whoever’s political party holds the majority in the House of Representa­tives – which goes to the GOP.

Painting Mr Biden as having a lack of charisma, Mr Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and possibly another point if Mr Biden fails to have “a major success in foreign or military affairs”.

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