On the horns of a dilemma
HAPPY International Women’s Day to one and all. In the wise words of poet and author Maya Angelou, “You may encounter many defeats, but YOU must not be defeated.”
This sentiment also resonates as we witness the ongoing worker exodus, depleting our local workforce and contemplate our options as employers, industries and as an economy.
Skilled and unskilled workers are seeking opportunities abroad, leaving notable vacancies in Fiji’s job market, particularly in vital sectors like tourism and construction, while we’ll wager the rapidly emerging BPO sector will hit a brick wall in its expansion efforts, if it has not already.
Last Saturday’s papers advertised around 200 vacant positions – more, if you add employers seeking entire teams and groups of graduate trainees. This trend raises concerns about unemployment rates and prompts employers to seek solutions to fill critical roles within the country and from outside it.
The issue of unemployment is not a new phenomenon in the Pacific but has evolved over time to reflect broader socioeconomic trends.
Policy decisions in Australia and New Zealand to increase recruiting efforts in response to their post-COVID economic demands and the ensuing eagerness of Pacific Islands to accept the resulting exodus and increased remittances as short term solutions to unemployment, poverty support and even economic stability have led to the lethargic responses to the private sector’s calls for more multi-dimensional resolutions.
But as public sector offices get quieter with nurses, teachers and civil servants joining this exodus impact the Government and its agencies’ efficiencies, we’re hearing that they’re feeling the private sector pain more acutely, with less resources and autonomy to address this immediately.
Historically, Fiji has grappled with fluctuating unemployment rates, influenced by factors such as global economic conditions, domestic policy initiatives, and demographic shifts.
Understanding the historical context is crucial for contextualising the current state of unemployment and informing potential solutions moving forward.
While these schemes were initially devised to offer our workers opportunities for employment overseas, the repercussions continue to reverberate within our labour market.
But this was to be expected when the discussions were first struck up by the relevant stakeholders and murmurs of a ‘greener pasture’ spread amongst the populace.
While the tourism industry has been hit hard, we are wondering where Fiji’s unemployed citizens are.
Obviously there are gaps within the market after the departures of workers overseas but there hasn’t been a rush to fill these gaps by those who are seeking employment.
Unless of course our data on unemployment figures is outdated.
Two or three times a year, our tertiary institutions hand over qualifications to graduating students and these potential workers enter the market. But do they, though? Stakeholders across industries have emphasised the necessity of having accurate and up-to-date information to formulate effective policies, address labour shortages, and steer the nation’s economy toward sustainable growth.
Government’s research body, the Fiji Bureau of Statistics serves as a vital source of information regarding various socio-economic indicators, including employment and unemployment rates.
However, the most recent data available from the bureau dates back to 2019. This dataset, derived from the Annual Employment Survey, provides insights into the employment landscape as of June 2019.
At that time, the survey indicated a total estimated number of paid employments in registered establishments, shedding light on the distribution between wage earners and salary earners.
Despite its relevance at the time of publication, the absence of more current data presents a significant challenge for stakeholders seeking to understand and address the evolving dynamics of Fiji’s labour market. Especially with the fallout from the pandemic impacting labour demand around the world.
Delving into an analysis of Fiji’s unemployment rate reveals a pattern of fluctuations over the years.
By examining data from 2018 to 2022, it is evident that Fiji’s labour market has experienced varying degrees of stability and volatility.
As of 2022, it stands at 4.33 per cent, which is a 0.6 per cent decline from the previous year. We wonder how this compares to data from FNPF using current and past data for workers in the system, and even on graduating student numbers from tertiary institutions.
The calculated estimation is based on the trends of previous years before 2019 and we know the changed trends post-pandemic have now quite significantly altered the demand and supply dynamics for most supply chains.
The reported unemployment rates provided presents a seemingly stable or declining trend, yet the on-the-ground experience and reality paints a starkly different picture.
By comparing Fiji’s rates with those of neighbouring countries like New Zealand, Australia, and Pacific Island nations, we can contextualise Fiji’s labour market dynamics and identify potential areas for improvement or intervention.
Factors such as the exodus of workers to overseas opportunities, mismatched skill sets, and demographic shifts contribute to the persistent labour shortages in tourism-related occupations and we have no doubt, in other industries as well.
This disparity begs the question: Why does the reported data not align with the observed shortage of workers in various sectors? It is evident that there are discrepancies between the official figures and the actual employment landscape.
And is perhaps why the critical nature of the challenge is not getting the required attention it deserves.
While we are generally aware of the outward movement of workers into formal labour mobility schemes; less awareness and discussion exists for the informal outward movement of workers especially responding to direct overseas employment advertisements, lucrative work in the US and Australia for aged care, the high demand for brides from Fiji in return for permanent residency and the larger number of people who are choosing to migrate because they can.
Areas we continue to pretend are not equal challenges.
Considering the evident gaps between reported and observed unemployment rates, we question the effectiveness of government surveys and data collection methods in accurately capturing employment statistics, rather than the standard response to employers that “we’re looking into it”.
Moreover, do these surveys adequately capture informal employment opportunities and underemployment prevalent in many developing economies, considering that this data could provide very significant baselines for Fiji’s economic development plans?
To grow the economy, we need more investments, whether new or expansionary.
To get those investments going we will need workers to get construction moving, to be ready for the demand for better infrastructure and supply networks like communication, IT, food, energy, water and waste management.
To get those investments construction ready, we need workers in Government agencies to process applications, inspect, monitor, collect taxes or fees and approve documents, schemes, work permits and plans.
We need maintenance workers and electricians and technicians that can fix or expand our tired hospitals and health services, and once this has been done, we will need the doctors and nurses and lab technicians to fill those spaces.
We need our children to have access to sufficient and quality teachers and lecturers that would start when we can eventually reduce our classroom sizes.
And we need more farmers to plant more fresh produce to increase current supplies for export, domestic and commercial use and reduce our high reliance on imports.
Tourism’s (and other affected industries) inability to fill crucial positions within tourism establishments can result in missed business opportunities, reduced revenue, and potential closures or downsizing of businesses.
It will certainly curtail expansion and slow down investments.
This not only affects the individual establishments but also has ripple effects on the broader tourism ecosystem, including tour operators, transportation providers, and local suppliers.
Concerned industries are collaborating with tertiary institutes to tailor educational programs and meet changing demand to ensure a steady pipeline of skilled graduates entering the workforce.
Internship programs, apprenticeships and industry placements can provide students with valuable hands-on experience and facilitate seamless transitions into employment upon graduation. But these and the increased in-house training programs taking place are not the long-term solutions needed.
First, we must admit we have a problem. And work together for better, long-term and Fiji-specific solutions.
THE collective efforts and resilience of Pacific Island communities in the face of climate change highlight the importance of international support and sustainable infrastructure to combat environmental challenges.
In November 2023, the Government of Tuvalu needed urgent support following extreme drought conditions that left many communities facing water shortages and surging water borne disease.
In less than 48 hours, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) disbursed a $4million emergency grant to help the government mobilise urgent water supplies and desalinisation equipment for remote communities.
The growing use of fast and flexible contingent disaster financing is one example of how ADB’s Asian Development Fund (ADF) supports Pacific islands to alleviate the worst impacts of increasingly extreme weather and climate conditions.
The Pacific region demonstrates to the world the urgency of climate action.
Climate change threatens to reverse decades of progress on poverty reduction and socioeconomic development. Pacific island communities are already experiencing its impacts in their daily lives.
Over the last two years we have witnessed unprecedented droughts in Tuvalu and Kiribati, devastation caused by Category 5 cyclones in Vanuatu, major flooding events in Samoa and Fiji and the steady onslaught of rising sea levels causing coastal erosion, crop failure and community displacement.
Compounding the depth of this challenge is the unparalleled pressure on national budgets as countries seek to recover from disasters and the fiscal and debt imbalances following the devastating shock of COVID-19.
The economic losses from these impacts have been huge. Severe tropical cyclones alone have caused damage and losses equivalent to 34 per cent–59 per cent of annual GDP in the most extreme cases.
Country-level analyses by the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company yield average annual losses from earthquakes, tsunamis, and cyclones ranging from the equivalent of 1.6 per cent of annual GDP in Palau to 6.6 per cent of GDP in Vanuatu until 2060. The total average annual losses are almost $300million, including $85million for PNG and $79million for Fiji.
The powerful message from leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting last year was that sustainable development and poverty reduction cannot be achieved without a dramatic scaling up of resources for climate action.
ADB is determined to respond to that call to action as the Pacific region’s leading multilateral partner.
But to do so, we need the support of donors to ADF.
In the coming weeks, these donors will seek agreement on a new replenishment of the fund’s resources, with a pledging session scheduled for the ADB’s annual meetings in May.
ADB will do its part by making a significant commitment of the bank’s net income to ADF.
But the overall ambition of the replenishment ultimately rests with its donors, whose grant contributions will determine the level of resources available to ADF recipients over the next three years.
In short, the pledges our donors make have direct bearing on our ability to meet pressing needs in the Pacific along with those of other lower income countries across Asia.
As great as the harm has been from the pandemic and on-going climate shocks, we are also making real progress in the Pacific and are poised to make even greater gains with additional resources.
ADF resources are already underpinning a scaling up of climate finance, with over $300million in commitments for the Pacific Islands expected in 2024, up from $240million in 2023. And we are putting these funds to good use.
A visit to Samoa just last week has reaffirmed my view that this ADF replenishment does not represent business as usual for our client countries.
In Samoa, I saw the earlystage development of a project to better manage flooding, which is occurring with greater frequency on the island.
I also saw the progress at Apia port, where an upgrade to the breakwater, alongside other greening measures, will better protect the harbour from dangerous king tides and other weather events.
Government officials shared with me an ambitious pipeline of climate-resilient infrastructure projects and are eager to see what might be possible with new ADF money in the years ahead. The Pacific Islands have not contributed to the global climate crisis but more than any other region are suffering its consequences.
As the world’s advanced economies have largely recovered from the economic losses of the pandemic period, there is a risk that they lose sight of just how damaging the ongoing effects of climate change are for these resource-constrained countries, most of which are still recovering economically and fiscally from the pandemic shock.
The ADF, as the largest multilateral source of grant resources, also serves increasingly as the partner of choice for other aid providers, including governments like Australia and Japan as well as institutions like the World Bank and Green Climate Fund.
Our partners in the Pacific will be watching the replenishment process closely in the lead up to May, but ultimately, it is our donors who will determine the scale of our ambition in the years ahead.
As great as the harm has been from the pandemic and on-going climate shocks, we are also making real progress in the Pacific and are poised to make even greater gains with additional resources
Scott Morris