Radical right now unstoppable in EU's Inner Six, Euronews polls show
The support for far-right and conservative parties appears unrestrained in countries once known as the Inner Six - Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands - which first established the European Communities in the 1950s.
This was the most striking figure to emerge from Euronews’ unprecedented survey based on 26,000 interviews (10,000 of these from the Inner Six countries) in countries representing 96% of the bloc’s population.
As the EU's beating heart, interest in what’s happening in the Inner Six has always been considered vital to check the pulse of the Union.
But a simple glance at the political parties leading in terms of seat projection for the next Parliament according to the poll shows how these countries are relentlessly leaning toward the radical right.
While centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) affiliates are still topping the poll in Germany and Luxembourg, Italy’s rightwing Brothers of Italy is expected to have its best electoral performance ever and it is projected to jump from its current seven parliamentary seats to 23.
More impressively, three parties affiliated with the far-right parliamentary group Identity and Democracy (ID) are leading the polls in France, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
Failure on migration
Overall, MEPs linked to centreright or far-right parties in these six countries will increase from 135 to 153 according to the survey.
This would mean that if the next European Parliament were elected at the time of the Treaty of Rome, a fully right-wing coalition could have easily taken almost half of the total MEPs elected.
While founding fathers Adenauer, Schuman and De Gasperi might be horrified at the success of some of European integration's fiercest antagonists - such as Geert Wilders or Marine Le Pan - pro-EU hopes are pinned on a marriage of convenience between conservatives and centre-right parties.
"I don't see Giorgia Meloni as a catalyst of Putin, I see her as a barrage to the extreme right," Commission Vice-President and prominent EPP player Margaritis Schinas told Euronews On Air on Tuesday (19 March).
This changed political landscape seems triggered by immigration issues, with large numbers of those surveyed in France (62%), Germany (53%), the Netherlands (50%), Italy (54%), and Belgium (48%) believing that the EU has had a negative impact on migration policy.
The Netherlands and Germany top the list of countries who believe that the fight against illegal migration should be a priority (respectively, 70% and 65%) with Belgium, France, and Italy following close behind (62%, 59%, and 54%).
Other winners and losers
In a significant shift within the six nations, progressive factions could experience a substantial decline in representation, according to the Euronews poll.
The Green bloc is anticipated to drop from 47 to 32 seats, while the Renew group is projected to decrease from 47 to 36 seats. This downturn is largely attributed to mounting scepticism towards incumbent parties, including Germany’s Greens and French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance movement.
According to the polls, both the Italian and German socialist parties are expected to hold strong.
However, improving performances of socialist parties are expected in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands - galvanised by the return to domestic politics of former Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans.
The growth in currently nonaffiliated parties is also worth watching out for in the Inner Six. In particular, two populist parties - Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and Italy’s Five Star Movement - are expected to tip the balance in the future composition of the Parliament.
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance split away from the German Left with a harder stance on migration and more focus on social conditions.
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After a tough wedding with Nigel Farage’s UKIP and an unsuccessful struggle to find a political home in this legislative mandate, Italy's Five Star Movement's potential 16 MEP could become now more palatable bedfellows for the Greens, who have previously spurned the Grillini several times.
The elections scheduled for 6th to 9th June 2024, which will select 720 Members of the European Parliament, are anticipated to be among the largest democratic events globally.