Local elections in Turkey are about to deliver yet another political thriller
Turkey is gearing up for municipal elections on 31 March, and the race has reached its apex.
Last year's presidential election nail-biter is having a significant ripple effect on who might be chosen to rule in its metropoles.
Local or not, this vote matters. Whoever wins in Istanbul might determine the trajectory of the entire country, including the future of the ruling AKP and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's legacy.
So, what is different this time? And why is it important?
Neither side is resting on laurels
In the last municipal elections in 2019, the Turkish opposition achieved a significant victory in the municipal elections, securing the majority of big cities, including the three largest: Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.
This victory proved to be the driving force for the opposition during last year's presidential elections. However, replicating the same level of success has proven challenging due to missteps in candidate selection.
Unlike 2019, this time there is no electoral alliance on the opposition side, presenting an additional challenge atop the obstacles posed by the unfair campaign environment.
The situation is far from perfect for both the AKP and its political partner, the nationalist MHP. The government has failed to fulfil the campaign promises made during the 2023 elections, particularly concerning the economy.
While elections in Turkey are largely free, they are not necessarily fair, as the mainstream media is largely controlled by progovernment businesses and government-backed candidates enjoy significant campaign resources.
Major problems regarding political rights and civil liberties, as highlighted by the European Union, further compound these challenges.
However, the situation is far from perfect for both the AKP (Justice and Development Party) and its political partner, the nationalist MHP (Nationalist Movement Party).
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The government has failed to fulfil the campaign promises made during the 2023 elections, particularly concerning the economy.
Inflation remains remarkably high, standing at 67.07% according to official data and 121.98% according to economists from the Inflation Research
Group (ENAG).
Moreover, even if the main alliance between the AKP and MHP continues, the Islamist YRP (New Welfare Party) has opted not to join the bloc, unlike in last year’s parliamentary and presidential elections, and their few per cent of votes could be significant.
All eyes on Istanbul
The most thrilling and mustwatch episode of the municipal elections will undoubtedly unfold in Istanbul, with potential ramifications for the future of Turkey.
The race will pit the incumbent mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, representing the main opposition party CHP (Republican People’s Party), against the AKP’s candidate, Murat Kurum.
While candidates from other parties may not stand a chance, their performance will directly influence the election's outcome. According to various opinion polls, İmamoğlu and Kurum are currently neck and neck in Istanbul.
Another victory for İmamoğlu would undoubtedly cement his position as the de facto leader of the opposition and the most probable contender in the next presidential elections.
İmamoğlu is widely regarded as a prominent figure within the opposition. His constructive approach, set against the government's polarising rhetoric, and his moderate political stance have earned him popularity among people from various backgrounds and political affiliations. This serves as his primary advantage in the upcoming election.
Notably, İmamoğlu won the 2019 municipal elections twice, winning both the initial contest and the subsequent re-run after the election board annulled the first results.
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His triumph in the second election was considered a notable achievement, particularly against President Erdoğan, who commenced his political journey as Istanbul's mayor in 1994 and played an active role in campaigning during the 2019 Istanbul elections.
Another victory for İmamoğlu would undoubtedly cement his position as the de facto leader of the opposition and the most probable contender in the next presidential elections.
Democracy thrives in big city lights
Such a victory would also be crucial in reviving the hopes of millions of people in Turkey.
Opposition voters had put their faith in change in the 2023 presidential election, and the result was a huge disappointment for many democrats across the country.
Post-election stress disorder continues to affect many people. As a result, enthusiasm for these elections is low.
However, İmamoğlu's potential victory has the power to change this atmosphere, inspire new hope and breathe new life into the opposition. This is why many see the Istanbul election as more than just a mayoral race; it has the potential to mark a turning point for the future of Turkish democracy.
With a population of more than 15.6 million, the city is larger than 20 of the 27 EU member states. As the economic and cultural heart of the country, Istanbul's significance is more than symbolic.
Istanbul holds significant importance for the government as well. Erdoğan prioritises reclaiming Istanbul.
However, the AKP's candidate lacks strong charisma, which reflects the dominance of the strong one-man within the party.
Yet, the "Erdoğan factor" should not be underestimated. The President himself is actively involved in campaigning for Istanbul. While the saying "whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey" may be partly a political cliché in Turkey, it still holds considerable truth.
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With a population of more than 15.6 million, the city is larger than 20 of the 27 EU member states. As the economic and cultural heart of the country, Istanbul's significance is more than symbolic.
That's why the election in Istanbul alone is arguably more important than many national elections around the world.
Drama to unfold
One cliché about Turkey in the West is that "Turkey is not just Istanbul". However, Istanbul is actually highly representative of Turkey as a melting pot for all cities, regions, and cultures within the country.
In Istanbul, over 13 million residents have their family registries in another city. Cities from all around Turkey are well-represented, such as Ordu (Black Sea Region) with 525,681 residents, Sivas (Central Anatolia) with 767,428 residents, Mardin (Southeastern Anatolia) with 259,380 residents, and Erzurum (Eastern Anatolia) with 442,107 residents.
Following the disappointing defeat of the opposition in the 2023 elections, many Turks are less enthusiastic about the municipal elections. However, turnout will almost certainly be quite high once again, and excitement levels are increasing in certain cities, including Istanbul.
İmamoğlu is undoubtedly a successful and popular mayor, but securing victory is far from certain. He faces an effective propaganda machine, which poses a significant challenge.
Moreover, he has encountered numerous difficulties during his term as mayor.
Being an opposition mayor in Turkey is no easy feat. Many planned initiatives can be hindered or delayed by central authorities. Additionally, court proceedings are frequently initiated against opposition mayors.
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In contrast, mayors from the ruling party enjoy access to abundant resources. In fact, the government openly suggests that citizens will receive better services if they elect a mayor from the ruling party.
Given these circumstances, it is already remarkable that İmamoğlu and Kurum are currently neck and neck and that İmamoğlu seems to have a fair chance of winning the election, according to several polls.
Hope dies last
This is also an important indication that, despite all the major problems, Turkish democracy is still alive.
Hopes in Turkey do not easily fade away, and democrats in the country do not easily give up. That’s how Turks operate, and that presents a significant opportunity for the future of democracy.
Following the disappointing defeat of the opposition in the 2023 elections, many Turks are less enthusiastic about the municipal elections. However, turnout will almost certainly be quite high once again, and excitement levels are increasing in certain cities, including Istanbul.
The election in Europe’s largest city, Istanbul, will be at the epicentre of the upcoming municipal elections.
If you are ready for the new season of the political thriller called Turkish politics, fasten your seat belts and follow Istanbul's results on Sunday evening.
It is worth watching because a potential victory of the opposition will undoubtedly have significant consequences for Turkey, and the future of Turkey is certainly important for the future of Europe.
Dr Demir Murat Seyrek is an adjunct professor at the Free University of Brussels (VUB) and the Brussels School of Governance.
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