ESCAPE TO THE COUNTRY: WILL PEOPLE LEAVE CITIES BEHIND POST-PANDEMIC?
Faut-il s'attendre à un exode urbain après la pandémie ? (country campagne)
Deviendrions-nous des rats des champs ? Entre augmentation des prix de l'immobilier, considérations climatiques, et clusters de contagion dus à la pandémie, les villes semblent ces derniers mois perdre un peu de leur rayonnement. Au Royaume-Uni, de jeunes et moins jeunes Londoniens s'interrogent sur leur envie de se mettre au vert à l’ère de la pandémie...
For centuries, cities have been plagued by periodic crises. The Great Plague of 1665 killed 70,000 Londoners, and those who could afford to leave fled the city. King Charles II and his courtiers left for Hampton Court. Parliament was moved to Oxford. All trade between London and other plague towns was stopped. The border with Scotland was closed. Across the channel was no different: in 1641 the future King Louis XIV of France was sent from Paris to Versaille to escape a smallpox epidemic.
2. Even in modern times, parts of society have always planned an escape for when city life becomes perilous: both 9/11 and the July 2005 London bombings saw a spike in interest in rural properties.
3. But these shifts were always, largely, temporary. The opportunities for employment, wealth and education that urban areas offered meant that each generation of youth continued to be tempted by streets
“paved with gold”. But what about in a postCovid world; will technology, and the ability for many to work remotely mean the exodus is final?
4. Coronavirus is a virus defined by city living. It originated in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million people. Deaths in cities have not been universally higher than in less-populated areas (poverty has played a more crucial role than density) but the statistics indicate cities are hard hit: the most recent Public Health England data [for week beginning 8 July] shows the highest number of deaths is in London (6,715) followed by the north west (6,589) and the south east (5,247).
5. Other difficulties of city living have been thrown into the spotlight in lockdown: trapped in properties that are, on average, smaller than elsewhere; having ess access to a garden (21 per cent of Londoners have no garden); the inflated rental prices (London is highest in Europe, Manchester is 30th and Birmingham 36th); and the density of people making social distancing harder. As the proximity to your office becomes negligible, and no one is able to take advantage of cultural and gastronomic benefits, the pros of urban jungle life are less obvious.
THINKING ABOUT LEAVING?
6. Peter deGraft-Johnson, 26, is one of those thinking about leaving London after lockdown. The poet and part-time cinema worker, says what initially attracted him to the city was “to be a part of the progressive arts and culture communities” and to meet likeminded people.
7. Despite great memories of the city he is now considering moving back to Essex, or even abroad. “I think many young people are considering leaving,” he tells The Independent.
“Covid has given more people the impetus to leave because it has highlighted the severe inequalities that [always] existed. Racist policing, high cost of living, lack of affordable and safe housing.”
8. Lucy Moss, 39, from Manchester, and her husband Sasha, say they have found lockdown made them more reflective about what they want for their family – and it isn’t city living. “We had not really been forced to think about it before lockdown – the city kept us busy. But now nothing is here, we realise how much we want to be closer to family and friends.”
9. Of course migrating to the suburbs is not unique to the Covid-era. Anthony Champion, professor of population geography at Newcastle University, says: “Young people are most likely to move in from the shires to
achieve more rapid career progress than they felt they would at home, and then later in their lives cash in on their inflated urban house values and move out, either at family building age [before children] or nearer retirement.”
10. But limited early data post-lockdown suggests we aren’t seeing just the normal cycle of movement. The number of jobseekers wanting to get out of the capital has more than doubled in the last fortnight compared with the same period in 2019. The proportion of buyers with London postcodes registering with estate agencies outside of the capital almost doubled in April. According to a May survey by estate agents, four in 10 buyers would now find a village location more appealing than before, with 71 per cent of younger buyers craving more outdoor space.
THE PERKS OF REMOTE WORKING
11. But this isn’t just about house buying. Even for people who own homes in cities, like 33-year-old Julia Nicholls from Canary Wharf, the pandemic has given her a change in mindset. “As a kid I always dreamed of moving out of my small town. I fell in love with London aged seven, on school trips, and I still love it.”
12. But lockdown has made her reassess her priorities, and she now wants to move to Brighton. “Lots of my friends are having similar thoughts to me. Especially those in their thirties. They’re seeing how much it costs to live here and reassessing whether it’s still worth it.”
13. For Nicholls being able to work remotely makes this dream a possibility – several big UK-based employers have already publicly announced they are changing office setups.
14. Of course for many frontline or low wage workers, the option to work in a city 100 miles away from their employer is not on the table. But for those for whom it is – could it change everything? Champion says: “There have been suggestions that new technology could free up people to live further from their workplaces. This could indeed fuel a spike in suburbanisation and counter-urbanisation.”
15. However, this mass movement will be made much harder for many if there is a recession, which i already widely forecast to be as bad, if not worse, than after the 2008 financial crash. “If there is a severe recession coming along, it looks like it is affecting cities more than elsewhere so residents may be trapped by house price dips there,” he says.
16. Whether the post-Covid migration ends up being another urban pipe dream, or just the continuation of an age-old cycle (young people move in, older people move out), we have collectively witnessed the shortcomings of cities in a time of crisis. And with greater accessibility to remote working, a door has been opened, showing us the future doesn’t have to look the same as the past.