How the American economy did under Donald Trump
Le bilan économique de Donald Trump
Bilan économique de la présidence de Donald Trump.
L'ancien président américain s'est souvent vanté de son bilan économique, qu'il qualifiait de quasi-miraculeux : réduction de la dette, entreprises florissantes et taux de chômage remarquablement bas. Quelle réalité se cache derrière ces affirmations ? La présidence de Trump a-t-elle réellement été bénéfique pour l'économie du pays ?
In his new book Casey Mulligan offers an intriguing explanation for why President Donald Trump makes outlandish economic claims. Mr Trump knows he is hyperbolising when he says that America has enjoyed “the greatest economy in the history of the world” on his watch, suggests Mr Mulligan, who was until recently the chief economist on the president’s Council of Economic Advisers. It is a “strategy for getting the press to cover a new fact, which is to exaggerate it so that the press might enjoy correcting him and unwittingly disseminate the intended finding”. Journalists’ dislike for Mr Trump, according to Mr Mulligan, blinds them to many of the administration’s genuine economic successes. He may have a point.
2. Assessing leaders’ economic records is fraught with difficulty. Presidents typically get credit when the economy is doing well and
intended voulu / finding information / according to d'après / to blind sb to rendre qn incapable de voir/ reconnaître / genuine réel / to have a point ne pas avoir tort. 2. to assess évaluer, juger de / record bilan / to be fraught with être rempli/semé de; ici, to be fraught with difficulty être extrêmement difficile / typically en règle générale / credit mérite / blame when it does badly—but short-term economic outcomes are usually more influenced by central banks, demography and what is happening in the rest of the world, among other factors.
3. Even today, political scientists continue to argue over whether the economy in the 20th century did better under Democratic or Republican administrations. All this is of little use to the American public, whose vote for a president
blame reproches / to do, did, done ici, fonctionner (fig.), "tourner", s'en sortir / outcome résultat / to happen se passer / among parmi, entre. 3. even même; ici, encore / to argue être en désaccord (aussi, soutenir) / over ici, au sujet de, quant à savoir si / whether si (oui ou non) / century siècle.
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must be based, in part, on a real-time assessment of economic competence.
4. Mr Trump came to power with unrealistic promises to create 25m jobs and supercharge economic growth, and to that end cut taxes and boosted spending, widening the fiscal deficit. Economists will continue to weigh up the specific costs and benefits of those policies. A true evaluation will take some time. At present, however, it is possible to assess whether the American economy overall did better or worse under Mr Trump. To that end The Economist has gathered a range of economic data wherever possible comparing American economic performance to that of other rich countries.
5. Our conclusion is that, in 2017-19, the American economy performed marginally better than expected. (That conclusion remains if we follow the practice of some political economists, who argue that the influence of presidents on the economy can be discerned only after a year in office, and limit our analysis to 2018-19.)
4. to supercharge "booster" / growth croissance / to cut, cut, cut ici, réduire / tax impôt(s) / spending dépenses / to widen creuser (fig.), augmenter / to weigh up peser le pour et le contre de, étudier (en comparant) / benefit bienfait, effet bénéfique, avantage / policy politique (ligne d'action), mesures / overall dans l'ensemble, globalement / worse pire / to gather collecter / range variété / data données / wherever possible de sources multiples.
5. to perform ici, s'en sortir / marginally un peu / to expect s’attendre à, prévoir / to remain rester (ici, valable) / to discern constater / in office au pouvoir. 6. GDP growth was somewhat faster in 2017-19 than it was in either Barack Obama’s first or second term, according to official data. America also did well relative to other countries. The world economy peaked in 2017. In 2018 it slowed but America accelerated. In 2019 America slowed too, but stayed ahead of others.
7. Another way to look at this question is to assess whether America in 2017-19 exceeded or fell short of economists’ expectations. In October 2012 the IMF forecast that in the subsequent four years (those of Mr Obama’s second term), the American economy would grow by an annual average of 3%. In fact that proved to be too optimistic; it actually grew by closer to 2% a year. But the IMF was too pessimistic in its projections for 2017-19, released shortly before the election of 2016. In those years America outperformed the forecasts.
BETTER THAN EXPECTED?
8. But if the American economy did better than expected in some respects, it disappointed in others. Take the corporate sector, which Mr Trump helped with lighter taxes. Corporation-tax cuts did increase post-tax earnings, one reason why the American stockmarket has done relatively well since Mr Trump came to power. America has also become a more favoured destination for foreign direct investment. But there is little evidence of the promised business-investment boom.
9. America’s labour-market performance is similarly nuanced. Though Mr Trump particu
6. GDP = gross domestic product PIB (produit intérieur brut) / somewhat quelque peu, légèrement / either l’un ou l’autre de / term mandat / relative to comparé à / to peak culminer / ahead devant.
7. way façon / to look at ici, étudier / to exceed dépasser, aller au-delà de / to fall, fell, fallen short of être en deçà de, ne pas être à la hauteur de / IMF = International Monetary Fund FMI (Fonds monétaire international) / forecast prévision(s) / subsequent ici, qui suivirent / by ici, de / average moyen / to prove to be s’avérer/se révéler être / actually dans les faits / to release publier / shortly ici, peu de temps / to outperform faire mieux que.
8. in some respects à certains égards / to disappoint décevoir / corporate ici, des entreprises / to increase augmenter / earnings revenu(s), recettes / stockmarket bourse / foreign étranger / evidence (inv.) preuves, signes avérés, indications.
9. labour-market (sur le) marché du travail / (al) though bien que /
larly likes to boast about monthly employment figures, it is hard to make the case that in 201719 the jobs machine was whirring. Jobs growth was slower than it had been during Mr Obama’s second term. Under Mr Trump unemployment did fall to the lowest since the 1960s, but this was not internationally exceptional.
10. The lot of working-class Americans, however, definitely improved in 2017-19. There is clear evidence of an acceleration in the growth of America’s median household income from 2017 onwards. A tight labour market also helped raise the wage growth of the lowest-paid Americans, relative to others, to a degree not seen since Bill Clinton was president.
11. And what of the economy in 2020? Mr Trump’s loose fiscal policy before the pandemic left America with much higher debt going into the crisis. But even though it is enduring a deep recession, America will probably be the best-performing G7 economy in 2020—perhaps by some margin. Just before the pandemic, the American economy looked slightly stronger than other rich countries. Before long, the gap may be more impressive.
Oto boast about se vanter/s'enorgueillir de / figure chiffre / to make, made, made the case that ici, affirmer / machine ici, marché / to whirr vrombir, tourner à plein régime.
10. lot sort / working-class (de la) classe ouvrière / definitely sans conteste / to improve (s')améliorer / median moyen / household (des) foyer(s)/ménage(s) / income revenu / from... onwards à partir de / tight serré; ici, avec peu de chômage / to raise augmenter / wage salaire / degree niveau / to see, saw, seen ici, constater, enregistrer, connaître.
11. what of... qu'en est-il de... / loose souple, laxiste / debt dette / even though bien que, même si / deep profond, sérieux / perhaps peut-être / by some margin de loin / to look sembler / slightly légèrement / gap écart, différence / impressive impressionnant; ici, marqué.