Africa’s Shifting Economic Paradigm

Before the outbreak of COVID-19, Africa experienced 25 years of uninterrupted economic expansion, prompting analysts to proclaim that the continent’s growth momentum was no longer dependent on its extractive industries. As access to education and health care increased, so did life expectancy, nurturing an “Africa rising” narrative. To finance their development needs, African countries turned to international capital markets, many of them for the first time.

A close examination of the data, however, reveals that Africa’s economic growth has not been broadly shared. Per capita growth, in particular, has been far less impressive than it initially seemed. Poverty remains endemic across the continent, with roughly 431 million people in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.90 per day). Without decisive action, the United Nations estimates that an additional 60 million Africans will fall into extreme poverty by 2030.

Moreover, the inefficient delivery of public services like education and health care has led to widespread dissatisfaction. The ambitions of the continent’s increasingly educated young people, in particular, seem to have outpaced actual material progress. Despite significant efforts to increase availability, half of Africa’s population still lacks access to electricity. Consequently, millions of Africans have migrated in recent decades in pursuit of better opportunities.

The economic shocks of the past few years, especially the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have undermined the “Africa rising” narrative by highlighting the continent’s heavy dependence on imported medicines, food, and fuel. Despite being home to 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, these crises have underscored Africa’s slow progress in capitalizing on its vast land and subsoil resources to achieve food and energy security.

The situation in Africa today bears a striking resemblance to the 1990s, a decade marked by wars, coups, and severe food and debt crises. The convergence of internal instability and external shocks has set in motion a vicious cycle of economic and financial distress, raising questions about the continent’s ability to shape its own destiny.

In the face of these challenges, however, African countries have become increasingly proactive in promoting their domestic and regional interests. This shift is reflected in their voting patterns at the UN General Assembly, particularly on issues like the war in Ukraine. African leaders have also assumed a more prominent role in international energy and climate discussions.

This newfound assertiveness is partly the result of a changing geopolitical landscape where African countries are increasingly courted by rival global powers. Political leaders now have a unique opportunity to leverage their growing clout by accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The AfCFTA, which came into force in 2019, aims to boost cross-border trade by creating a unified market with rules of origin that provide preferential treatment to African-sourced goods. The establishment of this trade bloc could stimulate industrialization and strengthen Africa’s position in