Central Banks’ Gold Buying Frenzy Set to Continue In 2024

The first half of 2023 was a record-breaking moment for central bank gold buying, led by none other than China and Russia. Organizations like the World Gold Council reported a staggering increase compared to 2022:

“On a year-to-date basis, central banks have bought an astonishing net 800t, 14% higher than the same period last year.”

Whether or not The January Effect will apply to the gold price as we finish the first month of 2024, there are plenty of indicators that the central bank buying spree will continue for at least the first half of the new year.

Accelerating de-dollarization is just one factor, as powerhouses like China and Russia continue strategically moving further and further from the grips of USD hegemony.

Of course, actions by the Biden administration to isolate Russia with sanctions in the wake of the Ukraine conflict only provide further impetus for the Russians to continue divesting in any way they can from the US dollar. Combined with a volatile ruble and a wave of new American spending to feed its proxy wars in Ukraine and Israel, it only makes sense that Russia’s gold coffers will continue to grow.

You can also bet on China and Russia buying significantly more gold than what gets reported publicly, so the real numbers are always higher than they seem. As Jim Richards has pointed out many times, such as in this tweet from Q1 last year, countries like Russia and China hold gold acquired through off-the-books buying programs that far exceed what they officially claim:

“Central Bank of Russia reported a gain of 30 metric tonnes in its gold reserves. That’s after a year of flatlining more likely due to non-reporting than non-acquisition. Nice to see Russia back in the game.”

For more central bank gold-buying fuel, the Fed, claiming victory against inflation, has actually given up on fighting it. The Fed knows it backed itself into a corner and has no choice but to lower rates in 2024 — which means central banks will need a way to hedge against those easier money policies. And while the Fed’s balance sheet shrank in 2023, it didn’t even come close to closing the gap created by the trillions it added during the Covid era. Of course, that wouldn’t stop Powell from running his victory lap at 2023’s final post-FOMC press conference about stopping rate hikes:

“That’s us thinking we’ve done enough.”

However, lower rates in 2024 would bolster the case for even more inflation, not less — leading to a tanking dollar and surging relative prices for gold and other commodities. Peter Schiff isn’t the only one to have pointed this out, but all you have to do is forget what central banks say and look at what they do.

The stage is set for banks to add more gold to their reserves to hedge against downward pressures on the dollar, even as the Fed claims victory over the inflation battle. The only question is which will occur first: a dollar crisis or a sovereign debt collapse? Central bankers aren’t going to wait to find out

After all, in 2023, not even higher nominal yields managed to slow down gold’s rally. Booming Treasury yields reflect less certainty in the health of the economy, not more, as investors flee to the perceived safety of Treasurys and bonds. But what goes up must come down, and a collapse in the Treasurys market would nuke the dollar, taking the rest of the economy with it:

“…a Treasurys crash will force the value of the dollar to plunge, which will lead to a brutal economic downturn — one in which the “standard of living” in the country will drop dramatically.”

Finally, 2024 brings even more uncertainty in the face of the US’s continuing proxy conflicts and, notably, a US presidential election that is reinforcing a global picture of domestic political instability.

With candidates on both sides like RFK Jr. and Vivek Ramaswamy embracing anti-establishment messages about reigning in central banks, the military-industrial complex, and the US debt spiral, there are plenty of candidates shaking the nest in ways that would have been unheard of just a couple elections ago. As Robin Tsui of the South China Morning Post points out, somewhat obviously:

“…the potential for US government shutdowns, fiscal policy debates, and political stand-offs ahead of the 2024 US election cycle persist.”

It’s true that many economists and Fed officials haven’t given up hope for a ”soft landing” next year, which would imply decreasing demand for gold. But as time has pressed on, this is a claim that even they admit could end up being proven hollow. To any honest observer, more signs of instability, inflation, negativeyielding debt, and election-year madness all point to a strong need for safety throughout this year.

Looking past the claims that US bankers and officials are making in public, central banks know the truth: they need to keep gobbling gold. It’s the only strategic maneuver that makes sense, with few other meaningful ways to protect themselves from becoming collateral damage in the confluence of self-destructive economic meddling, overstretched foreign entanglements, and election-year political turmoil in the US.

Africa’s Global Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, has continued to elevate its global standing, coveting several prestigious international awards, signaling the Bank’s continuous contributions to the economic development of Africa.

The recognition of the bank’s outstanding performance reaffirms its status as a leading player in the financial industry with critical financial intermediation, project financing, trade facilitation and advisory in Africa and beyond.

UBA emerged Global Finance’s Best SME Bank for 2023 in Nigeria, Ghana, and Mozambique, awards that spotlight the bank’s continuous resolve towards supporting small and medium scale businesses which is the life of any growing economy.

Also, the bank, with presence in 20 African countries won the 2023 FMDQ Gold Awards in three key categories of Money Market Liquidity Provider; FX Market Liquidity Provider and Dealing Member of the Year, while UBA was also named as Global Finance’s Safest Bank in Senegal 2023.

Responding to the FMDQ Group Awards, the Group Chairman, Mr. Tony O. Elumelu (CFR) said “this recognition is a testament to UBA’s impressive capital strength and capacity to provide liquidity to African financial markets even in the face of harsh economic realities, our market knowledge, dedication to customer services and the trust of our clients.”

Continuing on the global scene, UBA Ghana clinched the World Business Outlook Awards for 2023 as the Best Banking Services Provider Ghana 2023; Leading Financial Services Institutions Ghana 2023 and the Banking CEO of the Year Ghana 2023 which was won by Mr. Chris

Ofikulu, the then CEO of UBA Ghana.

Earlier, the bank was highly celebrated as it clinched nine prestigious awards including the highly coveted Bank of the Year Africa 2023 at The Bankers Awards 2023, organised by The Banker Magazine – a publication of Financial Times of London, the world’s leading business newspaper. UBA’s subsidiaries in eight countries including: Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania, underscoring the bank’s dominance and impact across diverse African markets.

UBA’s Group Managing Director, Oliver Alawuba, who received the awards on behalf of the bank, expressed his gratitude and excitement about the awards, and said the recognitions come as a reassurance that the bank is on track in its goal at consolidating its leadership position in Africa, as it continues to create superior value for its stakeholders.

“UBA is honoured to be named the Bank of the Year in these eight countries and to receive the overall Award for Africa. This accomplishment is a testament to the hard work, dedication, and innovative spirit of the entire UBA team. We remain committed to delivering top-notch banking services that positively impact the lives of our customers across the continent.

Speaking about UBA’s consistent excellence in the financial services sector across the continent which has earned the bank great accolades overtime, Editor of the Banker, Joy Macknight, said that as always, UBA remains a clear winner across a wide range of criteria, having performed impressively across its footprint with a strong financial performance across most of its markets.

“In a year of strong competition among the continent’s major banking groups, UBA has gained the edge on its rivals to win the Bank of the Year award for Africa for the third time in five years. Congratulations. The award recognises the bank’s strength across Africa, including many of its most competitive markets,” Macknight stated.

Only recently, UBA joined companies with N1trillion capitalization having seen its shares grew by over 260% since the beginning of 2023. UBA’s N1tn market capitalisation mark comes amidst the bank’s share being named as the highest performing stock in the banking sector in 2023, which underscores the bank’s robust growth trajectory and unwavering market confidence.

United Bank for Africa Plc is a leading PanAfrican financial institution, offering banking services to more than twenty-five (25) million customers, across 1,000 business offices and customer touch points in 20 African countries. With presence in New York, London, Paris, and Dubai, UBA is connecting people and businesses across Africa through retail, commercial and corporate banking, innovative cross-border payments and remittances, trade finance and ancillary banking services.