Geopolitical poker

concerning Cyprus puts him on edge. Greece and Cyprus’s overture to Egypt is a red flag for Erdogan. Israeli relations are another headache for the Turkish president after he torpedoed a close strategic relationship that took decades to develop. The question is: how far can Erdogan go and who could stop him? US President Barack Obama’s relationship with the Turkish leader could not be described as good.Nevertheless, despite his annoyance with regard to Turkish games in Syria, among others, Obama feels that he needs Ankara given developments in the broader region. In the past, when a crisis erupted in the Eastern Mediterranean or the Aegean we knew that the White House would intervene and Ankara would take the transatlantic conversation seriously. Nowadays we are less certain of the latter. Meanwhile, it is doubtful that Europe will intervene in any decisive way. At the last EU summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that every country is entitled to its EEZ but beyond that there was no indication of real support such as that extended to Ukraine. NATO is another factor to consider with its secretary general maintaining the middle ground. But what will happen if Ankara escalates the tension further? There are those who believe that Israel will intervene, though Turkey-Israel observers believe it highly unlikely unless Turkey threatens Israeli interests directly. Greece is doing the right thing by conducting be-