Facts and sce­nar­ios

Kathimerini English - - Front Page - BY ALEXIS PAPACHELAS

a far-sighted at­ti­tude to­ward Turkey’s re­la­tions with the Euro­pean Union. But now it won’t be too long be­fore a break­down oc­curs, and Greece will be the first to feel it due to prox­im­ity. Wash­ing­ton is go­ing through a tran­si­tional phase – of the kind it has never ex­pe­ri­enced be­fore. Such pe­ri­ods are full of dan­gers, be­cause the hands of the out­go­ing pres­i­dent “are tied.” This is even more true in this case of com­plete regime change in the US cap­i­tal, which has caused un­cer­tainty and ques­tions world­wide. Fi­nally, Pres­i­dent Er­do­gan seems to have forged strong ties with Rus­sian strong­man Vladimir Putin – an­other im­por­tant fac­tor. Could this Turkey-un­der-pres­sure at­tempt to “ex­port” its prob­lems to the West? It’s best not to dis­card this kind of sce­nario as we have al­ready en­tered a pe­riod in which the im­pos­si­ble might start to look pos­si­ble – on an in­ter­na­tional scale. Er­do­gan has over­stepped the mark – but so far only in words. He could re­open the gates for the mass flow of refugees and mi­grants to­ward Greece and Europe to start up again. Ab­so­lutely no one – in­clud­ing our Euro­pean part­ners – has a so­lu­tion for this sort of sce­nario. Any so­lu­tion emerg­ing in this case would be the re­sult of huge pres­sure at that par­tic­u­lar mo­ment.

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