Cash to last up to May at the lat­est

Kathimerini English - - Focus - SOTIRIS NIKAS

With­out re­ceiv­ing an­other bailout in­stall­ment, Greece can only fi­nance its obli­ga­tions for the first four or five months of the year, ac­cord­ing to a Eurobank study re­gard­ing the coun­try’s needs up un­til the end of the pro­gram next year and the course of the Greek debt.

The bank’s econ­o­mists ar­gue that un­less some de­ci­sions are reached to lighten Greece’s na­tional debt in the medium term, the coun­try will re­quire ever greater loans to meet its obli­ga­tions from 2023 on­ward.

Ac­cord­ing to the study, the coun­try’s net fund­ing needs are ex­pected to rise to 16.9 bil­lion eu­ros in 2017 and 9.6 bil­lion in the Jan­uary-Au­gust 2018 pe­riod. There­fore, Greece’s fi­nanc­ing needs are es­ti­mated at 26.8 bil­lion eu­ros un­til the end of the bailout pro­gram.

“If there are no sig­nif­i­cant de­lays in the sched­uled dis­burse­ments of loans from the of­fi­cial sec­tor, those needs are ex­pected to be suf­fi­ciently cov­ered through do­mes­tic re­sources (pri­mary bud­get sur­plus and rev­enues from the state prop­erty uti­liza­tion pro­gram), as well as the avail­able fund­ing from the ex­ist­ing ad­just­ment pro­gram,” the bank’s re­port notes.

July is pro­jected to be the most de­mand­ing month for 2017 as re­gards the re­pay­ment of the na­tional debt, with the fund­ing re­quired amount­ing to about 7.4 bil­lion eu­ros (of which 800 mil­lion will ac­count for in­ter­est pay­ment). Av­er­age ex­pen­di­ture on na­tional debt obli­ga­tions for the rest of the year (ex­cept July) is ex­pected to come to just over 750 mil­lion eu­ros per month, Eurobank says.

“All this de­notes that the Greek state’s cash avail­abil­ity will suf­fice for the cov­er­age of debt obli­ga­tions for the first four to five months of the year, even in the ab­sence of new ex­ter­nal fund­ing for the coun­try in the con­text of the cur­rent pro­gram,” write the Eurobank econ­o­mists. “How­ever, the com­ple­tion of the sec­ond re­view with­out any fur­ther de­lays is of vi­tal sig­nif­i­cance to avoid a fresh de­te­ri­o­ra­tion in the do­mes­tic eco­nomic cli­mate and to main­tain ex­pec­ta­tions for the pos­si­ble in­clu­sion of Greece in the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank’s quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing pro­gram,” the re­port warns.

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