Back at the crossroads
tragedy with incredible geopolitical consequences. The responsibility for preventing such a scenario is huge, because its effects would mark two or even three generations, as was the case with the 1893 bankruptcy. The pro-drachma lobby has not lost momentum even after two defeats, one in the second elections of 2012 and the other at the 2015 referendum. Powerful businessmen who have a lot riding on a Greek fall keep oiling the machine and taking every opportunity to air their opinions. And, to be honest, there are politicians who are closer to Planet Drachma than they are to Planet Euro in every party. A large part of public opinion, meanwhile, is almost as angry today as it was in 2011- 2012. The difference is that beyond people who are desperate and feel they have nothing to lose even if the country sinks into the abyss, we have a growing section of the middle class joining these ranks. Crazy taxes and social security contributions are driving a lot of people to despair. The referendum and the drachma scenario lurk as risks in the form of an accident or sweet release. An accident may occur if bailout talks are not wrapped up by the summer, the economy sinks again, banks start to teeter and we go to the polls when the situation is unsalvageable. In this event, we run the risk of election reforms leading to an extensive period of instability during which the country’s debts will keep rising and the Euro-