Athens looking at 4 deterrence scenarios
Plans are afoot to foil Turkey’s intention to start surveying in Greece’s continental shelf in September
In anticipation of a crisis in September, when Turkey says it plans to begin exploratory activities in Greece’s continental shelf, Athens has elaborated four deterrence plans, while at the same bidding to keep channels of communication open with Ankara.
The first scenario stipulates that if a Turkish research vessel is dispatched with an escort of Turkish frigates, but does not immediately proceed with exploratory activities, a similar number of Greek vessels will be sent to the area, and will remain there for as long as Turkey’s do.
The second scenario foresees that in the event that a research vessel lays out cables for seismic surveys, the Greek side will use wireless interference. Otherwise, the cables should be cut or prevented from reaching the bottom of the seabed.
The third scenario, which is deemed the least likely, concerns the possibility of Turkey sending a floating drilling rig. In this case, the instructions are clear that the drill should never touch the seabed, with all that entails. Given the size of all three of the Turkish Petroleum Corporation’s drillships, it would be impossible for the Greek frigates to prevent this. In this case the use of warning shots to prevent drilling has not been ruled out.
The fourth scenario concerns a combined mission of Turkish research ships in different parts of the Greek continental shelf. Again, the instructions to prevent surveying or drilling at any point from Rhodes to Crete are clear. This last scenario, although not considered the most likely, is being increasingly assessed, especially after the recent aeronautical Turkish presence in the region from southern Crete to Libya.
In the diplomatic sphere, Athens is not going to leave any possibility unexploited, given that there are circles in Ankara that want a de-escalation with Greece.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis wants to appeal to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which is well known on the other side of the Aegean, despite the apparent apathy and the promotion of the provisions of the maritime border deal between Turkey and the Tripoli-based government in Libya.
The recent statements by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu about the partial effect of the islands regarding territorial zone delimitations are indicative of a shift in stance of sorts, albeit not a significant deviation from the traditional Turkish positions.