Slow death or a second chance?

SYRIZA is in intensive care and the prognosis for the leftist opposition is not good. Will it suffer a slow death or will it make a recovery and get a second chance? Is there a cure and, if so, will it work for this particular patient under these particular circumstances?

The first blow came from voters who were disgruntled by how it governed; the injury only grew bigger due to its inability to serve as an effective opposition and became dire with its vague pre-election campaign message.

Its 15-point drop from 35% in 2015 to 20% last Sunday is huge, though not unheard of in Greek politics. The two other major, and historic, parties have been similarly punished in recent years: PASOK, which nosedived from 44% in 2009 to below 5% in 2015, and New Democracy, which saw support plummet from 45% in 2004 under Kostas Karamanlis to 18% in 2012 under Antonis Samaras.

The collapse of all three parties was precipitated by the economic crisis and the austerity measures it brought, with PASOK being dealt the biggest blow.

ND showed resilience. Faced with disaster, it activated all of its reflexes, changed tactics, rallied support and brought back key figures who strengthened the party both practically and symbolically. By 2019 it had recovered fully and was back to its “normal” levels of support, at around 40%.

PASOK’s downfall was different. From 2010 and until the elections of September 2015, SYRIZA – using a narrative that was completely out of touch with reality – attracted and misled many PASOK voters, turned their disappointment into indignance, and went after their former party. It is paying for that chicanery now.

In contrast to ND, which has consistently remained the only proponent in the center-right appealing to the whole spectrum from the populist right to the liberal center, SYRIZA and PASOK are going after the same voters, more or less, and they are on a collision course.

The question for the two so-called progressive parties – and by extension for the country – is which will convey a modern and realistic message that convinces voters it is ready to build rather than demolish.

In the present circumstances, where the balance has been upset by SYRIZA’s decline and PASOK’s rise, the former’s recovery seems unlikely. It seems that neither Alexis Tsipras’ considerable charisma nor his taking advantage of more serious and able cadres who appeal to a broader section of society, will be enough to staunch the bleeding, to reverse the prognosis and to convince voters that SYRIZA deserves a second chance – not to govern, but to provide a more effective opposition.