Sisyphean omnipotence
In the absence of an opposition party that could threaten New Democracy's dominance, the government is enjoying its omnipotence with almost rapacious pleasure. So, despite mounting social discontent, it is behaving as if it has secured immortality. Is the government right to feel this way?
If New Democracy finds itself getting around 35% of the vote in June's elections for the European Parliament, it will be plain sailing all the way to the next national polls in 2027. Such a performance would basically mean that it is leading the second party by a massive 20%, roughly, which would send even more voters fleeing from the opposition, while strengthening Kyriakos Mistotakis' profile as the preferred prime minister.
If, however, New Democracy drops to around 30%, getting close to the amount garnered by SYRIZA and PASOK together, this would create a sense of fragmentation that could be seen as signaling changes in the political landscape and would spur coalitions in the bid for government. If, indeed, Kyriakos Velopoulos' Greek Solution gets a boost and Niki clings to its percentage, the far-right threat would trigger developments to the left of New Democracy that would give these new parties (like the ones of Andreas Loverdos and Petros Kokkalis, and the New Left) much greater clout in determining potential coalitions.
In this case, forces within ND that disagree with some of Mitsotakis' key policy choices (such as same-sex marriage, support for Ukraine etc) but are now in a dormant state would likely rise up and start claiming vital space in the power system. This struggle for power will become even more intense if, as is usually the case, outside interests that have a way of influencing political developments recut the pie.
In other words, even though political stability is not at stake in June's elections for the European Parliament, the result may influence domestic political developments down the line. After all, there is no real dilemma in the absence of a convincing anti-SYRIZA narrative, making it even harder for New Democracy to achieve its goal of limiting the number of votes cast as a form of protest, to vent frustration, to express anti-systemic sentiment or to just haze the system.
Albert Camus argued that Sisyphus may be happy, bent on his task, reconciled with the absurdity of his role. A happy Sisyphus cannot but feel omnipotent too, pushing the huge boulder
Even though political stability is not at stake in June's elections for the European Parliament, the result may influence domestic political developments down the line
uphill and hoping that, this time, it won't roll down again. Such imaginings are only for verbalists, though, for the naive and eccentric. For MPs trying to placate bishops and deacons, though, what matters is the result of public opinion polls, which, however, also indicates that the government can feel happy because it is not being threatened by a political rival, but should not feel omnipotent because it only has sand under its feet, and the sand is moving.