PASOK: What benchmark for Euro elections?

It is undeniable that there is discontent within the center-left. The ascent of PASOK hasn't met previous expectations, and its leader, Nikos Androulakis, is receiving predominantly negative comments. Meanwhile, SYRIZA seems to have navigated past a critical juncture when it was on the brink of collapse and is now experiencing a resurgence.

That being said, a full analysis of the Stefanos Kasselakis phenomenon would be premature. The only certainty is that the majority of his supporters have little connection to what has traditionally been perceived as the Left. Time will reveal the political orientation of the new SYRIZA leader and his supporters.

Returning to the primary focus of this article, I argue that PASOK and its leader are bearing the consequences of their primary goal, which has been to secure second place behind New Democracy. These aspirations were nurtured not by PASOK's inherent strength but rather by SYRIZA's decline and the internal conflicts within the party. With the halt of SYRIZA's decline, the power dynamics between the two opposition parties have shifted.

However, to be equitable, we must establish a benchmark for PASOK's performance. New Democracy will be assessed against the 33% it secured in the previous European elections. Would it not be fair to apply the same standard to PASOK? This implies that the benchmark for the socialists should not be the 11.84% they obtained in the last legislative election but rather the 7.7% from the 2019 European elections. Adopting this perspective would cast PASOK's electoral performance and Androulakis in a different light. In both politics and life, the crucial aspect is how you define the starting point.

Voting in European elections tends to be governed by different motives, with voters showing a greater inclination to support smaller parties with an anti-establishment message. While PASOK may not hold the same dominance it once did, it remains a systemic party, a significant component of the established political order. It's highly unlikely that PASOK will attract the anti-establishment vote, given its systemic nature. Consequently, its potential for garnering additional support is limited since, as a systemic party, it's susceptible to the fluid voting behavior typical of European polls.

It's highly unlikely that PASOK will attract the anti-establishment vote, given its systemic nature

If there's a lesson to be learned here, it's that political leaders often become captives of the objectives they set for themselves. At times, these objectives are too ambitious, while other times, the leadership proves too feeble to uphold them.

In this instance, PASOK erred in defining itself in relation to the opposition. It pinned its hopes of strengthening its power on the perceived collapse of SYRIZA, which never materialized. Consequently, achieving a result between 12% and 13%, which would represent a significant increase compared to the 7.7% it received in the European elections, would likely be viewed as a disaster for PASOK, relegating it to third place.