Something is wrong with the numbers

Dear Editor,

I am having a problem with numbers; I never did. Yet I always seem to do when numbers issue forth from the lips of political figures. Consider the following recent examples.

First, the Minister of Finance is reported to have stated that some 105,000 of GPL subscribers have a monthly bill of less than that financially incriminating threshold of $10,000. This means that with an official customer base of 138,000, approximately 33,000 households and businesses use in excess of $10,000 monthly; only 33,000 give or take.

Now the Minister is an honourable man, and I cast no slurs on either his sanity or his integrity. But what gets a citizen below that magical $10,000 floor? I looked at a recent bill and found that the charge is $51.09 for a kilowatt hour of energy provided and used. That means citizens have to consume around two hundred kilowatt hours per month to stay below the embrace of the taxman that cometh.

Editor, I had a National Geographic (Discovery Channel) moment and did some research. I found out that a 14 cubic foot refrigerator plugged in for 12 hours daily utilizes 161 kilowatt hours monthly, and a 42 inch plasma TV on for five hours daily burns through another 35 kilowatt hours in the same time span. With a mere two pedestrian appliances (necessities), that fateful 200 kilowatt ($10,000) ceiling is in danger of being breached. But the minister is on record as relying on the GPL provided figure that 75% of the GPL customers are below those numbers. It should be noticed that I made no provision in my calculations for washing machine, clothes iron and light bulb, among a host of modern, everyday conveniences.

Now I can understand the absence of the first two appliances, but surely the Minister of Finance would not deny the great Guyanese public (that same 75%) the presence of light bulbs and the ladies their hairdryers?

Also, I am reluctant to believe that Mr Jordan would stoop so low as to tell the public that three out of four Guyanese exist in a world without a television and/or a refrigerator. He might be many things to many people, but not this.

Incidentally, a friend relayed that he unplugs his fridge every single night; he is around $8,000 monthly. Now if there are only 33,000 (1 of every 4) GPL customers who consume in excess of $10,000 monthly in electricity, on what basis did the mighty World Bank arrive at its assessment and conclusion that Guyana is an upper middle class society? If it is indeed 25% (of which a significant segment is dirty), then matters are more ramshackle than once believed.

I venture to suggest that something is wrong with those numbers bandied about so authoritatively. I am willing to concede that something might be wrong with me. I must monitor myself more closely.

The next discomfort with the numbers, as politically tendered, has to do with inflation. It is reported that the omnipresent Minister of Finance declared the inflation rate to be at less than 2%. My first thought was that somebody got carried away (or should be), or that I am being taken for a ride, along with the rest of beautiful, gullible, ignorant Guyanese. Inflation at less than 2% does not occur even in heaven, and there is no cost-of-living there.

But back here on earth, and on good Guyana soil, I would be interested in being enlightened on two things: the base year used, and the components of the representative basket of goods to arrive at that lovely place where inflation is less than 2%. It is an unknown and not experienced place. All I can say is that in the few short years since I have been here, I can count and feel the sharp increasing financial pinches.

That would be pinches as in plural, and where prices do not stay static. I am buying the same things, in the same quantities; yet I am spending ten, if not fifteen, per cent more.

A lot is not purchased locally, and is not included in my expense aggregation. Further, I assure the Minister that there are no outlays on luxuries such as jewellery, or Johnnie Walker (of any label), or German engineering. But there it is: approximately 10-15% more since 201112. Thus I must question that less than 2% inflation announcement. Tell that to the man in the street and he might unleash a few choice expletives.

Stepping aside gingerly from numbers, I hear of foreign exchange issues on the one side, and then I hear there is not. I read of no drug shortages, next I read there is such a situation.

Who is levelling with the Guyanese people?

Editor, my last word is this: whether GPL users, or inflation, or foreign currency levels, or drug shortages, I think that citizens are in the middle of a hazy séance dedicated to the fine and continually refined art of numerology. If I am right, then this is tantamount to government of the imagined and the concocted. It could be that there are new sharpies in town. I would like to be proven wrong.

Yours faithfully, GHK Lall