Evaluating Open Oil’s Financial Modeling of Guyana’s 2016 PSA – 4

Today’s column addresses the third part of my three-part evaluation of Open Oil’s financial modeling of Guyana’s 2016 PSA. It provides responses to the alleged inaccuracies contained in the first column, and identified in a letter by the Author of the modeling exercise. I do not usually respond to such allegations especially where a careful reading of the column is enough for readers to assess. I make an exception here, because the letter may be seeking to restrain discussion, which would be unbefitting for an advocate of openness.

The inaccuracies cited include: 1) “Open Oil did not develop the FAST standard” 2) Open Oil is an incorporated German Company, and not an NGO 3) the claim that it offers “unique specialized training” is inaccurate 4) the claims it “offers its services for sale as an equal opportunity consulting group is a phrase it has not used”; and 5) “the model is focused on Liza I as the first field” is inaccurate. And, finally, 6) the claim the model uses the “February long-term forecast price by the EIA” is inaccurate. Further, it states under the same header:

“Johnny is founder and director of OpenOil. He is a member of the Association of International Petroleum negotiators and member of the advisory board of the FAST Standard Organisation, the organisation that protects, promotes and furthers the development of the FAST Modelling Standard. Since 2013, he and OpenOil have pioneered the development of public financial models, leading debate in such techniques for organisation such as the World Bank and the IMF.

Johnny has extensive experience in providing financial analysis training to governments and civil society organisations, as well as generally around the management of extractive industries, including in and around the issue of beneficial ownership. He has consulted for the UNDP, the World Bank, the Centre for Global Development, GIZ, DfID, CABRI, the governments of Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Somalia, Indonesia, Tunisia, and the Kurdish region of Iraq.” Specifically on its relation to the FAST Modeling Standard, (Model Library) it states:

“This page contains a list of all models and narrative reports that have been built by OpenOil and partners, following OpenOil’s standardized open-source approach to financial modeling.

OpenOil has adopted the FAST standard of financial modeling to build a worldwide network of practitioners from civil society and government who can share tools, skills and experience, and collaborate to make financial modeling available to a wider set of stakeholders.” I leave readers to evaluate both Open Oil’s description of its training and its working relation in regard the FAST Modeling Standard.