Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Extraction – Another Chance for Guyana to Demonstrate Global Leadership?

David Singh, PhD. Natural Resource Management Practitioner, Adjunct Faculty, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University;

Rory Fraser, PhD. Professor (Ret’d) Forest Economics and Policy;

Timothy Laing, PhD. Senior Lecturer Economics, Brighton Business School, University of Brighton and GREEN Institute, University of Guyana

This is the first of a three-part series that addresses the unique place in which Guyana and arguably the Guianas finds itself. The country is at the fulcrum between offering the most cost-effective per capita solution to climate change through its intact forests on one hand and on the other, triggering the highest per capita rate of fossil fuel carbon production within half a decade. Whether Guyana can balance these two factors, becoming the master of its own future and a beacon of hope for the world, has a lot to do with how it responds to the oil and gas sector in a growing economy, and how it manages its forests for people’s wellbeing. Part 1 will describe the circumstances that Guyana finds itself. Part 2 will lay out the current context of the international forests and climate financing framework. Part 3 will outline a proposed solution that Guyana can adopt to regain its global position as a climate change leader.

More than a decade ago, Guyana became a global climate change leader, establishing its green credentials with its high forest cover and low deforestation rates, commitment to renewable energy, and strong emphasis on green, low-carbon investments to grow our economy. As a country we championed the establishment of an international framework to ensure that tropical rainforests were recognized and included in climate mitigation efforts. The mechanism was called Reducing Emissions from Deforestation, Degradation and maintaining Forest Carbon Stocks ( REDD+) and was developed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). REDD+ was devised to enable forested countries to more effectively participate in the global climate change agenda while growing their economies. It is essentially a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) scheme under which implementing projects, programmes and countries were expected to obtain payments for increasing or maintaining forest carbon storage.

From 2009 we operated what was perhaps the most successful global forest bilateral REDD+ agreements with Norway. Guyana maintained its low deforestation rates, established a world class Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) System that is still operating, changed its national forest policy and plan, and secured financial commitment for a raft of low-carbon investments. Today these gains are manifested in incorporation of the MRV System in decision-making for natural resource management; penetration of renewable solar energy usage in households, communities and even businesses; green business development; and heightened awareness in the general public of climate change and sustainable development. Through the years our rate of deforestation has been kept far below the annual global average, recording a rate of 0.048% in 2018 as against the global average of 0.275%. Equivalent carbon emissions from deforestation for 2018 were 9,514 million tonnes/CO2eq from 9,227 Ha of forest loss, or 12,685 tonnnes/CO2eq per capita per year or 0.012 Hectares (0.030 acres) per capita per year.

But now Guyana stands to lose these hard- earned green credentials through continued and unmitigated development of the oil sector with limited counterbalancing efforts in a green, lowcarbon economy.

There are two factors contribute to this issue.

First there is the contribution directly from fossil fuel that is extracted from Guyana’s marine ecosystems. Within five years, Guyana may be producing one barrel of oil, per person, per day.

This production rate surpasses the current rate of production of Kuwait. While it must be emphasized that this oil is exported, the contribution to global carbon emissions is equivalent to a minimum of 115 tonnes/CO2eq per capita per year. What will account as Guyana’s greenhouse gas emissions would be all the fossil fuel consumed or burnt, such as from the gas flaring that is currently occurring: If the current trend continues, flaring of gas off Guyana’s coast will contribute as much as 6,053 million tonnes/CO2eq for 2020, equivalent to 8,071 tonnnes/CO2eq per capita for the year. That is 63.6% of the carbon emitted from deforestation for 2018, or equivalent to 5,870 hectares of forest.

Secondly, there is the creeping “Dutch Disease” that has already begun to emerge into the Guyanese economy. The traditional sectors - forestry, mining, sugar that will - are either shrinking or stagnating in an inefficient and underdeveloped state. Apart from gold mining if one only considers revenue earned, the other sectors of the economy have become major financial liabilities. These problems are exacerbated by the highly inefficient, high carbon energy sector and the limited relevant human capital to manage the public and private service sectors. If Government attempts to only throw oil money to alleviate these sectoral problems we will surely be on the path to being the next Venezuela – over-reliant on the oil sector with the associated economic, social and political decay. Equally important, if Government does not ensure that role- ready leaders are securely positioned in key agencies and are free from political or industry interference, civil society will lose faith in Government as these agencies will underperform and will be unable to look out for the best interest in the Guyanese People.

While much has been accomplished as a result of Guyana’s investment in greening the economy, much more must be done. The systems in place are new, relatively untested, and still short of the required investments in improving technical manpower and technology, securing and sustaining our natural resources, deriving the optimum national benefits from resource extraction, incentivizing economic (business and job) activities, and empowering local communities, who are more likely to sustain efforts over our vast and varied landscape.

Guyana can use the oil boom to develop a vaccine for the “Disease”. Think about a country wherein the local citizens can live wholesome experiences as the gardeners of Eden. Some may scoff at this idea, but as the designers, builders of the Panama Canal, the Suez Dam, Costa Rica’s ecotourism brand, etc, we have to first visualize to actualize.

Is it a pipe dream to think of Guyanese living in communities dispersed across a landscape relatively untrammeled by modern ills of developed economies: noise, pollution, crime, social isolation, and neglect? Is it impossible to imagine a Guyana most of us cherish: loving, caring family members and friends; peace and tranquility, safe and nurturing environment, fresh air and an abundance of food? Simple things maybe, but according to the Global Happiness Index, these are what most of the world desires but have gone past the point of achieving because they have over exploited their resources, irreparably damaged their environment, and are so caught up the hustle and bustle of daily life they have little time for family and friends, much less others in their societies and the quality of their environment.

In Paper 2, we will look beyond where REDD+ and other green initiatives have taken us, describe the current context in which we operate, and discuss some of the local and global challenges ahead.

The Lucas Stock Index (LSI) fell 0.01 percent during the final period of trading in August 2020. The stocks of five companies were traded with 119,446 shares changing hands. There were no Climbers and one Tumbler. The stocks of Republic Bank Limited (RBL) declined 0.03 percent on the sale of 96,074 shares. In the meanwhile, the stocks of Banks DIH Limited (DIH), the stocks of the Demerara Distillers Limited (DDL), the stocks of Demerara Tobacco Company (DTC) and the stocks of Guyana Bank for Trade & Industry (BTI) remained unchanged on the sale of 13,500; 7,121; 2,000 and 751 shares respectively. The LSI closed at 641.08.