Guyana on the rise
Stabroek News, as in past years, has highlighted the ‘Ram and McRae 2024 Budget Review,’ which provides a readable synopsis and commentary on the budget proposals. During the course of this week, in the Budget debate in the National Assembly and in the consideration of the Estimates, both the Government and Opposition will have the opportunity of presenting their respective visions of Guyana’s development prospects over the next year. Although this will provide some detailed information on the thinking of the political parties, it will unfortunately, not be as enlightening as it could be because the Parliament Chamber has become a loud and raucous place where abuse has taken the place of creative interventions.
Neither the underlying tone of Ram and McRae, nor the Opposition in its initial comments, which will be substantiated in the debate, disagree with the general direction of Guyana’s economic direction, although there are differences, some substantial, in relation to policies. There are certainly no ideological differences. One party does not believe in ‘isms,’ another way of expressing support for capitalism, now referred as ‘market economy,’ in order to disguise the atrocities associated with the history of ‘capitalism’ in its raw forms, such as continuing, severe, inequalities. Hopefully, Leader of the Opposition, Aubrey Norton, will not be bashful in proclaiming APNU’s enduring support for ‘socialism.’ No one expects or wishes him to express unwavering adherence to Marxist socialism, but at least to embrace the socialism of vast swaths of Western Europe, Britain and other parts of the world which have held sway periodically since the Second World War and the policies of which have established the welfare state. Marx would have had no quarrel in 2024 with the ‘socialism’ of the Scandinavian countries and neither should the PPP and APNU.
While the Budget Speech did not outline an overarching economic philosophy, a summary of the performance of the economy and its prospects as set out by Ram and McRae is as follows: growth in real GDP of 33 percent; inflation of 2 percent; exchange rate of $208.5 to US$1; current revenue of $597.9 billion; capital expenditure of $421.8 billion; merchandise exports of US$13.2 billion; projected total expenditure projected at $1.146 trillion, as compared to $801 billion for 2023. The targets of 2024 are as follows: real GDP growth 34.3 percent with non-oil economy at 11.9 percent; inflation 2.5 percent; current revenue $717.8 an increase of 20 percent; capital expenditure of $666.1 an increase of 58.1 percent; merchandise exports of US$18,703.9 billion an increase of 69.38 percent.
It is important to note in what areas the Government proposes to spend our moneys. These are as follows: Ministry of Health $53 billion as opposed to $43 billion in 2023; Ministry of Human Services and Social Security $43 billion as opposed $37 billion; Ministry of Education $41 billion as opposed to $32 billion; Ministry of Agriculture $28 billion as opposed the $27 billion; Ministry of Public Works $11b as opposed to $10 billion. Increasing investments in these areas provide a clear direction in which the Government is taking Guyana – more to health, more to education, more to agriculture, more to housing, more to infrastructure.
There are no shortages of complaints from a variety of sources. Some Guyanese have complained to the US Exim Bank about the proposed loan for the Gas to Shore facility and asked that the loan application be rejected. Some have complained about the inadequacy of benefits to alleviate the cost of living and poverty. Some have asked for cash advances of varying amounts. The Government has responded to some of these issues, certainly not to the satisfaction of the persons making the representations, but many of these issues have been addressed in one way or another and to one extent or another. My own complaint is about the necessity for a refinery when Trinidad has a refinery with spare capacity. While it is true that the proposed refinery in Guyana will be privately owned and of a small capacity, it is a pollutant and dangerous. I don’t recall anyone asking this question and the Government has not addressed it.
The Budget has not addressed two major issues and maybe the Budget speech is not the place for it. But ethnic discrimination and corruption are two issues that will continue to attract attention. These are major issues in Guyana’s politics, but even though both are difficult to prove, they are sharp political weapons. There is no doubt that during debates on the estimates accusations will fly thick and fast. Part of the problem in Guyana is that sufficient mechanisms and checks and balances do not exist within government’s structures to deal with these matters in such a way can that can be addressed before they reach the National Assembly. Part of the reason, of course, is that these are the fault lines of Guyana’s political system that need to be addressed at some time in the future.
(This column is reproduced with permission from Ralph Ramkarran’s blog, www.conversationstree.gy)