Maduro’s end game and elections
Following the “Barbados Agreement” signed last October by the Venezuelan Opposition and Government representatives to facilitate “free and fair elections” and the US easing sanctions on oil, gas and gold, I noted that “Maduro has raised the ante on their border controversy (with us) to counter the political challenge he faces next year after the economic and social implosions.” I then developed the thesis that Maduro was caught in a dilemma between trying to satisfy American pressures for elections that he knew would most likely remove him from office and the improvement in the economic sphere that their carrot of removing sanctions on oil, gas and gold could bring.
Towards us, Maduro was following the very well-known “diversionary theory of war”: generating a foreign policy crisis to divert the public’s attention away from social and economic implosions and simultaneously bolster his political fortunes through a “rally around the flag” effect. The Venezuelan people had been socialised since the mid-20th century to accept they were robbed of Essequibo by Britain and he expected their emotional support. But unlike the 1960s when the controversy was first raised by the Betancourt government, the US now not only wanted Maduro out but had strong interests in Guyana because of the massive Exxon oil find.
Maduro decided to “gamble for resurrection”: seeing defeat staring him in the face of elections, he was willing to take high-risk actions that would be considered “irrational” in normal circumstance because the high costs of defeat “objectively” outweighed the low probability of victory. He decided to raise the ante on our border controversy and simultaneously take on the Americans by gaming the Barbados Agreement. In early December, he truculently dismissed the ICJ’s jurisdiction over the Border controversy - where we had placed it through the Geneva Agreement - and raised the ante further by defying the ruling of the ICJ with a referendum purporting to give him “authority” to annex our Essequibo. In mid-December, he met with President Ali and they issued the Argyle Declaration that “reiterated their commitment to Latin America and the Caribbean remaining a Zone of Peace”. But we reiterated that Maduro was simply lulling us into a sense of false security and his over-the-top reaction to the visit of the British patrol boat Trent, proved us right.
In January, the Venezuelan Supreme Court allied to Maduro ruled that Maria Corina Machado was ineligible to run in the elections because of “anti-national activities”. The US then revoked its waiver of the sanctions tied to the Barbados Agreement. However, this applied only to transactions involving Venezuelan gold mining and not to the critical oil sector where
Chevron continued operating and shipping oil to the US. The US said that waiver would continue until April 18 as per the original terms and Venezuela’s actions towards democratic elections would be monitored. Maduro clearly read this disparate treatment by the US as waffling to satisfy their oil interests. Venezuelan Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez snorted derisively, “The Barbados agreement is part of the policy of blackmail and extortion against Venezuela. The truth is that we are prepared to live without licenses from the United States and to continue defeating the criminal blockade.”
Not surprisingly, the Maduro government continued violating the Barbados Agreement and threatening our sovereignty. They issued arrests warrants for eleven allies of Opposition Leader Machado and four were arrested immediately. Up to then, the US had not asked her to step
aside for a replacement candidate to meet the March 25 nomination date. Machado had insisted she would not do so since her ban was contrived and she was not afforded her due process. The US publicly supported her stance. However, on Friday, she suddenly reversed her stance and announced that she had nominated historian Corina Yoris Villasana as her successor. This will be interpreted by Maduro as another sign that the US is more concerned about their oil supplies in the face of imposed sanctions on Russia. We will have to see what they do on April 18 on Oil sanctions. Then, clearly dismissing our military capabilities, came the bombshell of Maduro enacting legislation to annex Essequibo.
We have proposed that to counter the war being waged by Venezuela in the grey zone – economic, diplomatic, threats etc we establish a military base in Essequibo to which the US forces would have access. The US will have to step up to the plate: there is the demonstrator effect on other possible allies in this new Cold War.