Guyana at risk of devastating social and economic wildfires

Dear Editor,

While politicians fiddle, Guyana is smoldering under conditions which can flare into devastating social and economic wildfires. Two recent reports suggest that even before this ongoing political impasse Guyana is not ready for the combination of political (low confidence, no parliament, no budget, caretaker government), health (pandemic) and economic (public and private sector closures and unemployment contractions in key sectors e.g. agriculture and mining) crises in Guyana.

The Inter-American Development Bank ((Index of Governance and Public Policy in Disaster Risk Management (iGOPP): National Report Guyana, 2019)) assessed Guyana was woefully underprepared to respond to or recover from disaster, in their words:

The results of the iGOPP application in Guyana (2017) show a general progress level of 12.08%, which places the country in “low” range of advance. The analysis of the results by component of public policy …reveals that “General Framework of Governance for DRM” is the most advanced component, reaching a 38% of compliance, which is considered as

“incipient” progress, according to the iGOPP ś classification. In a range considered as “low progress” the iGOPP places the rest of the five components, with “Risk Reduction” reaching a 16% followed by “Risk Identification” and “Disaster Preparedness” components, with a 10% and 8% compliance, respectively. No progress is reported by the iGOPP for indicators associated with the “Disaster Recovery Planning” and “Financial Protection” components (0% compliance)

Another IDB Study (Development challenges in Guyana, IDB Policy Brief, 2018) contended that despite Guyana’s relatively stable macroeconomic situation in 2018 (i.e. low inflation and moderate growth, sufficient international reserves, stable currency, and manageable public debt and current account deficits) and the prospects for large increases in GDP (from oil revenues) starting in 2020, Guyana generally underperforms with respect to unemployment, poverty or inequality, as compared to its peers. The quality of social services remains a challenge and quality of life (health, education, income) indicators are not the most encouraging across the Caribbean. They recommended the formulation of a sustainable development plan wherein the focus “should be on improving productive capacity, undertaking needed structural reforms, and improving efficiency and competitiveness, as well as diversifying the base of the economy and better protecting the environment” while recognizing the government’s “greening of the economy” strategy and their approaches to address the country’s large infrastructure deficit.

These two reports serve to identify important factors that Guyana needs to address immediately in the response to and recovery from a disastrous combination of political, social, health and economic conditions. Guyana has to find a way to bring together specialist and interdisciplinary experts and systems thinkers (call it a Disaster Response and Recovery Collaborative) who can help chart a way out of these very troubling times. The political formations can put to the test their ideas of inclusive governance by experimenting with putting together a team (Collaborative) that crosses racial, party, gender, social and economic barriers based on merit and appropriate competence.

After the “Recount”, Parliament sits, a Budget is passed, a Cabinet is appointed, and the Public Service and Private sector re-opens for business, Guyana would have at least some ideas on how the wildfires could be quelled.

Yours faithfully, Rory Fraser