My prediction is that APNU+AFC will not give up
Dear Editor,
There is no mystery regarding the electoral defeat of the APNU+AFC at the 2020 elections. The reasons for the party’s performance at these elections are apparent for the most casual observer. From the time it assumed office in 2015, the party committed a series of mistakes that conspired to make it unsuitable for managing our affairs. The most obvious ones are:
1. The increase in salary and benefits for ministers that were first disputed then later justified with ridiculous explanations by government officials.
2. The ruthless dismissals of the Community Service Officers and sugar workers.
3. The discontinuation of the year-end bonus granted to the disciplined services members and initiatives that supported atrisk groups, e.g., cash grants for school children, water and electricity subsidies for pensioners, and elimination of the basket of zero-rated goods
4. The secretive signing bonus that was also denied before later confirmed with outlandish excuses.
5. The total disregard for the party’s promise to fulfill its promise of more jobs, better living conditions, housing, and social services that motivated swing voters to support the party in 2015.
6. The undemocratic traits such as the unilateral appointment of the Chairman of GECOM and refusal to accept the passage of the No-Confidence Motion and resign and call elections as prescribed by the constitution.
7. The punitive tax measures that crippled the productive sectors: mining, agriculture, and manufacturing and invoked the private sector’s wrath.
8. The countless shady deals and nonvalue added transactions (e.g., dietary and travel that cost the treasury billions).
These mistakes painted the APNU+AFC as an uncaring, self-serving, and untrustworthy group of people whose value system was incompatible with the “Middle,” that is, the 20 percent of voters who will decide the government now and in the future. This group of voters does not vote race but issues. They are young professionals who are smarter than the people directly involved in politics but prefer to live quietly in the background. This group is not only here to stay but will grow in the future. No political party can afford to ignore this group of voters since they will make ethnic voting an unfeasible strategy now and in the future.
From the mistakes of the APNU+AFC, the party obviously ignored this group of voters. They probably felt that since they controlled the three arms of the state, this group of professionals will be no match. They controlled parliament by occupying the seats of the speaker and deputy speaker. They exercised total control over the bureaucracy. With that amount of control, it is understandable that the APNU+AFC ignored the “Middle” and instead went down the road of creating a dictatorship that guarantees political office with the least effort. The signal was sent very early not only by the Machiavellian changes in the guards of the arms of the state and electoral body but a question the leader asked a group of supporters “How did the PNC gain and retain power?” That question was intended to be rhetorical based on our recorded history.
While it was supposed to be smooth sailing to a dictatorship, the Middle exposed the fallacy of the APNU+AFC at the right moment. They did not take their fight to the streets but engaged the APNU+AFC in the courts while establishing ties with the international community with the muscle to neutralize this party. The APNU+AFC never anticipated this response because they underestimated the intellectual prowess of the Middle. Today they are backed into a corner where they are alone against the entire international community. My prediction is that APNU+AFC will not give up. The party has expressed this publicly through one of its powerhouses who said it would not concede. Too much is at stake. Based on the many shady transactions, a small group within the party’s leadership risks losing their freedom. The party will not be able to return to power in the short or medium-term because of its performance. Even if the party manages to maintain its core support base, the APNU+AFC cannot gain electoral success without the Middle that will remember the torment it endured since December 2018. Losing power threatens the survival of APNU+AFC which has control over the state’s coercive arms and may be tempted to use them to stay in office. This week, the avenue for using the court will be reduced, and a decision will have to be made if this option should be utilized. Should this option be activated, the change will be swift. The geopolitical conditions render it extremely dangerous for CARICOM and the West.
While the end to the political impasse is around the corner, it will not end the
struggle for political space by the supporters of the APNU+AFC. This group that makes up more than 30 percent of the population and consists of persons from various ethnic, professional, and religious backgrounds will agitate for space within the political landscape. This group’s struggle will manifest in various forms necessitating a workable formula where it does not feel alienated. The new government must therefore consider the fears and anxiety of this segment of the population as it attempts to navigate Guyana through the troubles of COVID-19 and a bankrupted economy bequeathed by the APNU+AFC.
Yours faithfully,
S. Pasha