Oil, Guyana and Climate Change – Quo vadis!!

Dr. Neville Trotz served as Dean, Faculty of Natural Sciences at the University of Guyana and Director of the Institute of Applied Science and Technology at Turkeyen, Guyana, before becoming Science Adviser to the Commonwealth Secretary-General (1991-1997). Most recently he served as Science Adviser to the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, based in Belmopan, Belize.

Our current reality is that Guyana has started oil production and will continue to do so for some time. The question then arises, “how does it use the resources derived from oil”? On the mitigation side the country is seeking ways to move to renewables (hydro, solar, wind etc). As the country transitions to a no carbon energy sector, fossil fuel will be part of the energy mix. Transition does not happen overnight but takes time and resources to effectively change the architecture of the sector. What is required though and this is missing from the Guyana discourse so far, is a national plan with a sunset clause for the use of any fossil fuel-based facility in Guyana’s final energy system. That sends the clear signal that such a facility is temporary, a means to an end, that end being a local energy system that is totally dependent on renewables as a source of supply.

We are already experiencing the impacts of climate change. The science tells us that we have limited time in which to adapt and build a climate resilient Guyana. Oil revenue may generate resources to support adaptation without relying on the international financing system to “save our lives.” The other top priority then for expenditure of funds derived from oil revenue should be building climate resilience across the entire vulnerable landscape in Guyana. Any delay runs the risk that despite the revenue earned, climate change, in the absence of adaptation, would wreak havoc on our economy and derail our sustainable development agenda.

Both the government and the opposition have said that they are committed to building a low carbon and climate resilient economy as can be gleaned from the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) and the Green Growth Development Strategy. Is it beyond expectation for a national discussion to reach some level of consensus on the way forward to implement an adaptation programme, aimed at ensuring that we have a climate resilient Guyanese society?

Over the years, under both political regimes, Guyana started to take action to build resilience to climate change impacts and to enhance capacities to adapt. At a global level, Guyana ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994. Since that time, two National Communications have been prepared and submitted to the Convention. In 2015, Guyana submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC and is in the process of updating this. Further, Guyana ratified the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in 1994 and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in 1997.

At the national level, Guyana has prepared a Low

Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) to foster low carbon and climate resilient development and a Green Growth Development strategy which targets the same overall goals of the LCDS. The LCDS, prepared in 2009 and updated in 2013, highlighted the importance of adaptation and building resilience and in this regard identified thematic priorities such as upgrading infrastructure to protect against flooding, hinterland adaptation, addressing systematic and behavioural concerns, and developing innovative financial risk management tools. The LCDS is supported by sectoral policies including the National Integrated Disaster Risk Management Plan, the National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, the Sea and River Defence Policy among others. Guyana has also made progress in implementing adaptation and resilience building actions principally through interventions to the drainage, irrigation and sea defence systems to reduce the risks of flooding.

Before demitting office in 2015 the government had contracted a risk management firm to develop a Climate Resilience Strategy and Action Plan (CRSAP) aimed at defining actions that would lead to the realisation of the Government’s vision for a green economy. A draft final report of the CRSAP was submitted to the new government for their consideration in 2016 but I am not aware of the fate of the document.

The CRSAP identified potential changes in Guyana’s climate (both slow-onset and extreme events), identified current and projected cross-sectoral climate vulnerabilities and risks and assessed Guyana’s current capacity for