Even with oil, the poor will be with us
It was not so long ago that any conversation surrounding the oil industry was one that was cloaked in hope. For the majority however, this hope would quickly transform into fear and apathy as evidence of the resource curse began to take centre stage. Many are steadily realizing that despite the jubilation with which oil is celebrated, its promised wealth will largely circulate amongst one-percenters and the well connected. As the reality of the poor always being with us sets in, we will begin to see more linkages of oil’s real and imagined negative impacts on the environment, economy and people.
An example of this was seen in the concerns of fishers over the past few months about the possible impact oil exploration is having on their livelihood. With significant declines in both the quality and quantity of their catches, fishers intimated that they have been facing extreme losses due to oil exploration activities. Added to this is the most recent occurrence where fishers stated that vessels operating for ExxonMobil are denying them access to traditional fishing sites. This has resulted in them experiencing high overhead costs and debt based on their new inability to provide for their families.
There are several things to consider here; chief amongst them being the increasing effects of the climate crisis, growing prioritisation of oil over other aspects of the economy and, the rising cost of living associated with not only the COVID-19 pandemic, but of our reclassification as an upper middle-income country.
While research to date has been inconclusive, a growing body of work focused on the linkages between oil extraction and declining habitat quality and diversity can help us to better understand the short and long-term impact that offshore oil extraction has on coastal fisheries. In our case however, these declines, which are inkeeping with global patterns, have been recorded even before the discovery of oil was made. This is not to say that the oil industry is not culpable, as globally, it remains one of the largest drivers of climate change, but the specific linkage to reduced rates and quality of fish right at this moment might not hold up under a microscope. We have however, already begun to feel the effects of the climate crisis in Guyana through flooding, heat waves and warming waters which contributes towards fish going deeper into the ocean floor for more habitable conditions. Unfortunately, if global patterns hold true for Guyana, the natural habitat of fish will continue to shift, resulting in further massive declines in profitability for the fishing industry.
Despite the extreme volatility of oil and the industry’s contribution towards further environmental degradation, oil wealth continues to be hoisted up as being the thing that will drive development in Guyana. This has predictably resulted in a government that is hyper-focused on the health and growth of the industry, while largely relegating other industries to the sidelines. While this reality is only in its beginning stages, what we will see more of as we move forward is not only increased conflict and territorial disputes with fishers, but extreme social and economic consequences for communities as marginalised groups face further challenges.
Last year, due to increased rainfall, essential groceries rose sharply causing many to rethink their dietary needs. In the long term, which might be much sooner than we imagine, these sharp increases will remain the norm as weather patterns change and cost increases based on the analysis of our economy’s health are implemented. This will have a significant impact on the health of the nation, as households will find it increasingly difficult to afford their grocery bill. We also have to think about how reclassification of our economy has significantly limited our ability to access financing, resulting in increased vulnerabilities that have been especially felt during this pandemic. In the face of an environmental crisis, a raging pandemic, volatile markets and supply chain issues all set against the backdrop of stagnant wages and insufficient social support programmes, those who are poor will face increased pressures as time moves on if changes to our current trajectory are not made.