Bureau of Standards CPI’s inflation of 3.8% is just not a reflection of the Guyanese reality for food essentials

A big word of thanks to the Chief Statistician of the Guyana Bureau of Standards, Mr. Errol La Cruz (I think that it may be Dr. La Cruz), for his enlightening letter captioned, “CPI regularly prepared and published and is in conformity with recognized international standard” (SN, Feb 22, 2024). Right from the get-go, I must say this: Mr. la Cruz is one of the few (very few) senior public servants that has some credibility in this neighbourhood. Now, I share some thoughts that Mr. la Cruz’s letter prompted. I will keep matters simple.

First, a note is taken of, and an approving nod given to, the employment of the standards of those venerable international bodies that he mentioned. Second, the roughish part now follows. The Bureau’s Household Budget Survey (HBS) could be one of the keys to unlocking this food inflation mystery. How many of those households are in the over $150,000 monthly category? For those good folks, a one hundred percent increase in the price of salt would mean nothing. That is, if they use salt in the first place. I don’t. Third, sticking with salt, the problem for working class Guyanese is that salt, flour, bread, milk, and oil, seem to increase in price week over week. These items are like a hurricane: they do not stay still.

Moreover, spinach (bagee), long beans (bora), pumpkin, eddo, plantain, and sweet potato all have a common tendency: they are in a footrace with the prices of the week before. Just so that Mr. la Cruz and I are on the same page, it is a race for higher and higher elevations. Could it be that the Bureau’s basket is too limited, notwithstanding the profusion of items included? Could it be that the wrong food basics are in that basket to the extent that the bottom has developed some holes? In other words, they contradict reality, they have no bearing on the experience of regular Guyanese.

Fourth, as is the custom, Mr. la Cruz highlighted the use of “averages.” The problem with averages is just that: they convert most Guyanese to a standard, where they all look alike, and feel alike, no matter the price stimuli that delivers sharp blows on them nonstop. Averages serve as a cushion for some; those same averages are a denial of the harshness of living in Guyana in a consistently rising price environment. Averages are the conventions, but they are also a kick in soft areas. Food prices in the markets and supermarkets are not increasing arithmetically in Guyana; rather, they spiral exponentially, as in cruise control (neither pun nor slur intended).

Nothing rises by 10%. Not one basic item is running ahead by its lonesome, but almost all of them simultaneously. My focus is on food, as most of the rest of the stuff identified by Mr. la Cruz is in hand and need not be bought here. I can speak of food, such as perishables and others that must be replaced weekly. Bread, greens, veggies, and fruits fall into these categories. Pertaining to greens and fruits, the conversation is not about broccoli and Brussel sprouts nor about grapes and California apples.

Fifth, I would be the last upstart to cast doubt on, or question, either the Bureau’s methodology or Mr. la Cruz’s commitment to giving to Guyanese what the models and programs produce. I think, however, that he should be aware that there could be some slippage in the quality of his entity’s inputs leading to the weakness of 3.8% for food inflation, averages or no averages, and all the rest of the impressive elements that Mr. la Cruz was so kind to share. I am sorry, but that 3.8% is just not, cannot be, a reflection of Guyanese reality for food essentials. I hear about it all the time. I see it occasionally. And I sense it ever so often. Finally, I will be bold and suggest that that 3.8% for food inflation is a function of what goes in being the prime determinant of what comes out. A pleasant Mash holiday to all Guyanese.