The futurist who predicted China’s wealth

The death in June of Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock, reignited memories of an interview more than a decade ago in Dubai.

We had arranged to meet in a hotel and two aspects stood out. To almost every question he replied with a China-related answer and he wanted, at the end of the interview, to come with me back to the newspaper office to see the printing press.

Toffler, an elegant man in a field often associated with wackiness, was disarming. His manners were old-fashioned and his dress (suit and tie) was definitely not futuristic.

He first gave mankind a massive jolt with Future Shock in 1970 and before we had time to recover delivered another blow to our collective solar plexus with The Third Wave 10 years later.

“Futurists never predict. No one can say for certain what will happen, but Future Shock looked at what might happen,” he proclaimed. Among its pages were references to videos, the internet, home computers and other everyday things that we take for granted, but in the 1970 were, to use the vernacular, “way out”.

Toffler conceptualized the change that the world was embarking on was going to throw up challenges to organizations, from global bodies to families.

After walking on the moon, there was a feeling in the industrialized world that things could only get better. Toffler was not so sure and his predictions saw the book become the fourth-highest selling non-fiction work in the United States for the entire decade, success that even Toffler did not foresee.

It was also hugely popular in China, a country he viewed as being on the cusp back then of making a massive contribution to the global community.

“The first wave was basically agriculture 10,000 years ago. The second the Industrial Revolution in the 1600s and the third wave some of us are experiencing: the creation of wealth without muscle, knowledge wealth.” The Chinese have elements of all the waves but they are not dependent on the first two to reach the third, he said.

In the rather swank hotel lobby where the interview had taken place, few gave him a second glance. But as soon as I took him unannounced to see the paper’s office and printing press people waited in line to shake his hand.

Later, he thanked me for showing him the press and told me about the moment his life changed.

“Just after Future Shock in 1970, my wife and I were booking into the Savoy in London. And someone ran up to me with a cable, we still had cables in those days, before cable TV. It was from my publisher. It read, ‘Nixon comments Future Shock phone home’.” A juicy irony, as Nixon was in for a future shock himself.

The taxi arrived at the newspaper office and I directed the driver to take his passenger back to the hotel. Toffler and I shook hands and said goodbye. I waved as the taxi pulled away. Naturally, for a futurist, Toffler did not look back.