East Asian integration restarts on bumpy road

When Beijing canceled a scheduled visit by a diplomatic envoy meant to clear the way for the annual China-Japan Republic of Korea foreign ministers’ meeting in Tokyo, there were worries that it might not happen this year. Ten days later, on Sunday, the failure of a special vice-ministers’ meeting to agree on a date for the event only exacerbated the pessimism. Even after the three parties finally managed to announce on Monday that it would be held on Wednesday, whether there will be a bilateral meeting between the Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers remains a question of concern to some.

Beijing’s insistence that Foreign Minster Wang Yi “is not paying a visit to Japan”, but going there for the three-party meeting, is symptomatic of the frosty relations that exist between the two countries at the moment.

In fact the atmosphere among the three countries is not really conducive to fruitful discussions by their top diplomats — after all, Beijing’s relations with both Tokyo and Seoul have hit rock bottom lately, and neither are Seoul and Tokyo on the best of terms due to the dispute over Dokdo Island (Takeshima Island in Japanese).

Given the current climate, it would be unrealistic to expect much to emerge from their discussions, even on pressing topics such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear weapons program, or on issues where they already have some agreement such as the China-Japan-ROK free trade agreement. The current security and political differences among the three countries are unlikely to allow for anything more than a shared statement of principled abstract consensuses. But that does not render the meeting insignificant. For it finally is happening, and that is of great significance, for it delivers the essential message that, divided as they are over some issues, the three countries remain convinced that they have to work together anyway. This in many respects is more important than a one-on-one meeting between the Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers.

As China’s Foreign Ministry notes, through this meeting the momentum of China-Japan-ROK cooperation can be maintained, the process of regional integration in East Asia can be advanced, and the three countries can move toward the goal of establishing an East Asian economic commonwealth by 2020.

That deadline may sound too ambitious considering the situation at hand. But the fact that the official channel of three-party communication has not been discontinued at least keeps hopes of realizing an economic commonwealth alive.

The real challenge then will be whether the three parties can contain their disagreements and coordinate their security interests, because that is where all their troubles have arisen.

That the three countries keep talking is essential for the region’s peace, development and prosperity.