Blue skies and no clouds on the horizon

I’m looking out my window at a clear blue sky.

I could not have said that looking out a Beijing window this time last year, but, at least so far, this winter is looking very different from the past. Usually, winter is the worst time of year in Beijing because both the city and surrounding areas burn coal for heating.

I’m usually naturally skeptical of any government’s promises and plans. But, the plans to clean up Beijing’s air seem to be working. Knock on wood.

The first time I moved to Beijing, I arrived on Jan 4, 2013. The weeks that followed are known as the “airpocalypse.” Jan 12 of that year turned out to be one of the most polluted days on record, with a measured level of the most dangerous small PM2.5 particles above 800. The Beijing Air Quality Index considers below 35 to be excellent and 35-75 to be good. Anything above 150 is considered heavily or severely polluted. The index maxes out at 500.

Of course, I thought about going home to the US. But, I later met the lovely woman who is now my wife and Beijing is a very interesting and dynamic place. So I’m still here, despite the pollution.

The problem of air pollution is not unique to China. When I went to university in Los Angeles in the 1970s, I did not realize that snow capped mountains were near the city until the first rain came, six months after I arrived. And, I remember seeing photos of emergency oxygen stations on Tokyo streets in the 1960s.

China has set a target of reducing PM 2.5 in Beijing and surrounding areas by at least 15 percent this winter. That may not sound like a lot, but the results are clearly and immediately visible. How has this been accomplished?

According to a recent report in China Daily, Beijing and 28 other nearby cities have switched from coal to natural gas. Also, nearby steel, coal, and aluminum producers have cut output. As part of a larger plan to reduce overcapacity, many marginal steel and cement factories in Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing have closed.

The switch from coal to natural gas doesn’t fulfill the dream of moving to renewable sources of energy such as wind or solar. But, at least as a transitional fuel, it can enable large cuts in pollutants.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, US energy-related CO2 emissions fell 15 percent from 2005 to 2016. And, according to Scientific American magazine, the US is on target to reach the goals then president, Barack Obama, agreed to at the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit. Earlier, the US was the only major industrialized country to meet the goals for CO2 reduction by 2012 laid out in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, despite that the US senate refused to ratify the treaty. This was made possible almost entirely due to fracking technology, which has cut the price of natural gas and enabled a more than 50 percent cut in US electricity generated by coal.

Beijing still has a ways to go. As I’m writing this in the afternoon on Tuesday, the current PM2.5 measurement is a beautiful 25. But, Monday it reached a high of 172, after being excellent all of last week.

Also, according to the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau, cars are the single biggest contributor to PM2.5 pollution, accounting for 31 percent of the total. So, the problem won’t be solved until ways are found to reduce the number of cars in the city.

Beijing is having a beautiful winter so far, cold but with gorgeous blue skies. Something is working.