China and the world’s electric dreams

Electric vehicles sound like the perfect solution to a host of problems facing the world — global warming, air pollution and dwindling fossil fuel supplies.

And as the United States pulls back from the Paris climate accord, many other countries have moved to embrace EVs, seeing them as a future necessity.

Britain plans to ban sales of new gas and diesel vehicles by 2040, India will sell only electric cars by 2030 and oilgiant Norway, where EVs make up the bulk of car sales, aims to phase out fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2025.

In July, China-owned Volvo announced that by 2019 every car it makes will have some kind of electric engine. In the same month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that China was the leading country globally in the EV game.

China has indeed been developing its reach with new energy vehicles, with no small success.

The nation’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) set a target for sales of EVs to reach 5 million by 2020. China is currently home to around 1.5 million new energy cars, recent industry data shows.

But with sales of new energy cars likely to fall from record highs in December ahead of expected cuts in government subsidies for EVS in early this year, can fresh momentum be achieved?

As the world’s largest car market and biggest buyer of EVs, this target may prove elusive as it also adds pressure on global carmakers to increase their output in a bid to maintain their China market share.

So, is there a danger China’s domestic EV program could be eclipsed by foreign players such as Tesla?

China is now home to Tesla’s two largest charging stations, one in Shanghai and one in Beijing, and the carmaker installed 1,000 charging posts last year.

And domestic competition remains strong, not least from Chinese carmaker Future Mobility, which aims to launch a contender priced to undercut Tesla’s “budget” model.

Offerings like GM’s Baojun E100 EV already look set to give both of them a run for their money with a far more appealing price tag of just $5,300. And many industry insiders in China have welcomed the upcoming reduction in subsidies, as the move will likely spur sales in newer, longer-range vehicles as adoption of the technology grows exponentially.

But are EVs really the environmental panacea that governments hope for?

Frank Kelly, professor of environmental health at Kings College London, recently said that cities need fewer cars, not just cleaner ones. Kelly argues that EVs will not sufficiently reduce particulate matter because PM components not only include engine emissions, but also contributions from brake and tire wear and road surface abrasion.

With high PM2.5 and PM10 levels plaguing many Chinese cities, particularly the capital, this is certainly a cause for concern.

Yet, no matter the pros and cons, EV adoption looks set to leave the combustion engine by the roadside. And for global industry players seeking to secure the top slot in China’s EV market, the journey looks set to be a long and arduous one.