Failure risk in plans behind Ankara’s anger
Syria sees Turkish army’s presence in Afrin as invasion
ISTANBUL — Turkey’s strong reaction against the entry of pro-Damascus forces into Afrin, where Turkish troops are fighting Kurdish militia, has to do with concerns that the move could undermine Ankara’s plans at home and in Syria, according to analysts.
Damascus’ involvement in Afrin would bust Ankara’s hope of creating a Sunni zone in northern Syria, said Hasan Koni, a professor of public international law at Istanbul Kultur University.
Turkey is widely believed to be seeking to forge a Sunnidominated area along its border in northwestern Syria by supporting the Free Syrian Army and some moderate rebel groups in Idlib province.
As the advance of the Turkish army gained momentum on Tuesday in the Kurdish militiaheld Afrin district, reports came that some pro-government forces arrived in Afrin to help the Kurdish militants counter the Turkish offensive.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said later that day that the convoy of the proregime fighters had to turn back without making it to Afrin under artillery shelling by Turkish troops.
Underlining Turkey’s determination to not allow any such move, Erdogan warned that those attempting to aid the Kurdish militia, known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which is treated by Ankara as a terror group, would pay a heavy price.
Some pro-government militia as well as Syrian army forces have managed to enter Afrin despite Turkish shelling, according to some press reports.
Citing Syria’s state-run Sana news agency, Russia’s Sputnik reported on Wednesday that new units of Syria’s popular militia had made it to Afrin to fight against the Turkish army.
The Syrian government, with which Ankara refuses to communicate politically, sees the Turkish army’s presence on Syrian soil as an invasion and an assault on its sovereignty.
“Ankara reacts because whatever strategy and plans were made for Afrin and later for Manbij could now be thwarted,” said Faruk Logoglu, a former senior diplomat.
Ankara said its troops would also move eastward, following the Afrin operation, to kick the YPG out of the town of Manbij, where US troops are based.
On Jan 20, Turkish troops, backed by FSA militants, launched Operation Olive Branch to drive the YPG out of Afrin, but they have advanced slower than expected so far, heightening concerns about more risks in the quagmire of the Syrian theater involving world and regional powers as well as shifting alliances.
Ankara’s attitude may also have to do with the critically important presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2019, Koni said.
Noting the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is exploiting the Afrin operation to win public support, he said any involvement of the Syrian forces would risk a success story in Afrin.
The AKP has been much criticized by the opposition for politically using the Afrin operation, as it is widely argued that success in Afrin would make snap elections more probable.
Reports have long circulated about Kurdish militia negotiating with Damascus to hand over the control of the Afrin canton to the Syrian army.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned on Monday that the operation would continue in case Syrian forces would arrive in Afrin to protect the YPG rather than fight it.
Damascus’ control of Afrin is probably viewed by Ankara as a pre-emption of Turkish influence in the region, said Logoglu.