Retaliation could hurt GOP states Analysts expect US agriculture would be targeted over tariffs

Kentucky has bourbon and Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Wisconsin has Harley-Davidson motorcycles and cranberries and Paul Ryan, the Republican leader of the US House of Representatives.

Florida has oranges and was a key swing state for then-presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Those products and others are on a list put together by the European Union for a 25 percent levy on around $3.5 billion worth of imports from the United States if the Trump administration imposes tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum.

It’s a list aimed directly at the home states of the two top Republican lawmakers, McConnell and Ryan, as well as states that were important to Trump’s election as president and will be key in his re-election effort.

Though China hasn’t put out such a hit list, analysts expect one of its targets would be agriculture, and that could hurt Trump’s support in farm belt states, along with Republicans who represent them in Congress. Kentucky, Wisconsin and Florida are among the states Trump won to become president.

Referring to the Chinese, Jim McGregor, chairman of the Greater China region for APCO Worldwide, a Washington-based independent global public affairs and strategic communications consultancy, said: “They know our system inside out. They know what companies are important to Paul Ryan. They know what companies are important to Mitch McConnell. They know which trade associations and political groups have a big voice in Washington.”

Kentucky-made bourbon is an $8.5 billion industry and accounts for as many as 17,500 jobs and creates $825 million in tax revenue every year, according to the Distillers’ Association. Kentucky makes 95 percent of the world’s bourbon.

In Wisconsin, where Milwaukee is the headquarters of Harley-Davidson, roughly 16 percent of its sales are to Europe.

They know which trade associations and political groups have a big voice in Washington.” Jim McGregor, chairman of the Greater China region for APCO Worldwide

Europe also is the largest export market for US cranberries, and Wisconsin is the world’s top producer.

As for agriculture, restrictions on legumes would hit farmers right in the middle of the Trump-supporting rural Midwest. Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, which all flipped from Democratic to Republican in the 2016 election, produce about a quarter of US crop.

In another development, the Trump administration is considering limiting visas to Chinese students as part of a forthcoming package of tariffs and investment restrictions against China.

According to The Wall Street Journal and Politico, the package of measures intended to punish China for allegedly violating US intellectual property laws and pressuring companies to transfer technology.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the restrictions include limiting the number of study and work visas for Chinese citizens and ending a program that allows frequent travelers to the US to get visas that last 10 years.

China sends the most international students to the US by far, representing about a third of the 1.1 million international students enrolled at US universities in the 2016-17 academic year.

“With international students contributing $36.9 billion to the US economy last year and supporting more than 450,000 jobs, any drop in enrollment would have severe consequences,” said Esther D. Brimmer, the executive director and CEO of the Association for International Educators. Contact the writers at aiheping@chinadailyusa.com