Moon-Kim meeting seen as beginning of end to conflict
Inter-Korean good faith has helped make summit possible, analysts say
The upcoming meeting between top leaders of the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea could start the process of ending the current confrontation, rather than be an endpoint in itself, US experts said.
A positive momentum around the Korean Peninsula has been built up in recent months ahead of the meeting between ROK President Moon Jae-in and the DPRK’s top leader Kim Jong-un that is slated for Friday at the border village of Panmunjom.
Kim will walk across the border for their historic summit, becoming the first DPRK leader to do so since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Moon will receive Kim after he crosses the concrete slabs that form the military demarcation line in the morning. They will then walk together for about 10 minutes to a plaza where they will inspect an ROK honor guard, Moon’s chief of staff Im Jong-seok told reporters.
After signing the guest book and taking a photo together at Peace House, the venue for Friday’s summit, the two leaders will start formal talks at 10:30 am. They will later plant a pine tree on the border using a mixture of soil from both counties’ mountains and water from their respective rivers. The tree, which is beloved by both countries, dates to 1953, the year the war ended, Im said.
Analysts said that the interKorean good faith resulting from the diplomacy around the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and Peninsula denuclearization has helped make the summit possible.
Pyongyang’s statement on Saturday that it was ending its nuclear and long-range missile tests also helped remove potential obstacles to dialogue and further enhanced mutual trust.
Dan Mahaffee, senior vicepresident and director of policy at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said the push around the Olympics by the two leaders has lowered tension on the Peninsula and led to the dialogue.
Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute, a Washingtonbased nonprofit policy research institution, said that enormous credit should go to related countries like China “for creating the environment needed for the upcoming inter-Korean summit”.
Without these continuous efforts to push for dialogue with the DPRK, the world “might not be where we are today,” he said, explaining that Pyongyang’s participation in the Pyeongchang Olympics helped “shift the narrative of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula to one of dialogue”.
Michael J. Mazarr, a senior political scientist at the US RAND Corporation, said that the primary factor that made the meeting possible was Pyongyang’s “apparent appetite for improved relations with the region and possibly Washington, and thus extension with Seoul”.
Mazarr said Seoul’s appetite for better relations has also played a crucial role.
“Obviously, the Moon administration has taken a very different line than its predecessor, and the summit might not have happened without that change,” Mazarr said.
Challenges to face
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(Enormous credit should go to related countries like China) for creating the environment needed for the upcoming interKorean summit.”
According to Mahaffee, efforts to continue lowering tensions and reversing tensions related to the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs are essential for the success of the meeting.
“How Kim and Moon work together will set a foundational tone headed into the proposed US-DPRK meeting, but that will also have a broader range of factors to consider,” he said.
For Stangarone, the upcoming Kim-Moon meeting is “about starting a process rather than resolving issues”.
There have been reports and indications that the two leaders would declare an end to the Korean War, he said. “But we should think about this more as beginning the process of ending the conflict that has taken place rather than an endpoint in itself.”
Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute