After years of promise, e-cars to go mainstream

Falling battery prices mean they can soon compete with petroleum models

GENEVA — Electric cars have been rolled out with much fanfare at auto shows for years, but few have ended up on streets or at dealers. That could be about to change.

The electric cars under the lights at the Geneva International Motor Show promise to be the leading edge of more affordable, longerrange vehicles that start to move battery cars out of their current niche — as a product for environmentalists willing to put up with limited range and for wealthy enthusiasts of new technology eager to pay for buzz and the robust, silent acceleration the cars offer.

Several broad underlying trends are converging to increase the likelihood that larger numbers of battery cars will be on the roads in the next several years.

Prices are falling for batteries, consumers are turning away from diesel engines after Volkswagen’s emissions scandal, and governments in Europe and China are enforcing tougher emissions rules.

As more electric cars roll off assembly lines, the trick will be getting more people to buy them. A key factor will be price — of the battery to the manufacturer and, consequently, of the car to the customer.

Volvo Car Group’s Polestar 2 and Peugeot’s new electric 208 compact are electric offerings aimed at bringing battery-powered cars within reach of more people. The Polestar 2 launch version, expected in 2020, starts at $55,500 after the $7,500 tax incentive in the United States; the Europe price starts at 59,000 euros ($66,640). A less expensive model is envisioned after the first year. Polestar says the model is aimed at the same potential customers as the Model 3 electric compact from California carmaker Tesla.

Tesla said last week it will close many of its stores and move to online sales only so it can cut costs and reach its goal of selling the Model 3 for $35,000. Before the announcement, the lowest Tesla price was $42,900.

Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath says the takeoff for e-cars “is something that’s pretty close”.

“You need a decent offer of a premium electric car that makes it accessible,” he said. “There are a lot of brands pitching into the region above 80,000 euros ($90,600), so the offer there is getting broader, but below, in the area between 40,000 and 60,000 euros, it’s still relatively limited and I think Polestar coming in there will help accelerate things.”

And then there’s Volkswagen. The world’s largest carmaker, which sold 10.83 million cars last year across 12 brands including Audi and Porsche, is refitting its plant in Zwickau, Germany, to produce electric vehicles, the first of eight battery vehicle plants worldwide.

Zwickau will produce 100,000 ID model vehicles next year on what the company says will be a carbonneutral basis, boosting Volkswagen’s output of electric earlier models to 150,000. Overall, the division aims to sell a million electric cars a year, or about a fifth of the Volkswagen brand’s sales, by 2025.

“We want to bring electrification to a breakthrough,” said Ralf Brandstaetter, the Volkswagen brand’s chief operating officer.

Under $34,000 model

He said the company can do that through efficient, large-scale production. The ID compact heads into production in November and should go on sale in spring 2020, with a base model available for under $34,000.

The company is spending $12.4 billion on new technology through 2023, the bulk of that on developing electric cars.

According to Mark C. Newman, managing director and senior analyst at research firm Bernstein, falling battery prices are bringing the day closer when electric cars become as cheap as gasoline and diesel models.

The estimate for 2018 battery pack prices is below $130 per kilowatt hour for the most efficient manufacturers. That is down from $1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, and closing in on the $120 per kWh level that, given Europe’s high gasoline prices, the International Energy Agency estimates will make a compact battery car cheaper to own and operate than its internal combustion cousins.

(E-cars) is something that’s pretty close . ... You need a decent offer of a premium electric car that makes it accessible.” Thomas Ingenlath, Polestar CEO